September 28 report:
In September, polyester staple fiber as a whole showed a cost-driven upward trend and high-level fluctuation. According to Spotcom, the benchmark price of polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm) in China was 7,931 CNY/ton at the beginning of September, and by September 28, it had risen to 8,635 CNY/ton, an increase of 8.87% for the month, with prices reaching the highest range of the year.
The core driver of market dynamics stems from upstream raw materials. International crude oil prices remain supported by geopolitical factors; as of September 25, the November WTI crude oil futures contract settled at $92.41 per barrel, while the December Brent crude oil futures contract closed at $97.44 per barrel. This has, in turn, pushed PTA and ethylene glycol prices higher. As of September 28, the average spot price of PTA in East China stood at RMB 7,293 per tonne, up 14.14% from the start of the month, directly increasing the production costs of polyester staple fiber.
Although the price of short fiber has risen along with raw materials, the industry's processing margin continues to be negative, putting significant pressure on companies' losses. The increase in prices is noticeably lagging behind the rise in upstream raw materials, and the transmission of costs to the downstream is not smooth. On the supply side, some factories have implemented production cuts to protect prices, which to some extent reduces the circulation of spot goods and provides a bottom support for prices. In mid-to-late September, the market's upward momentum slowed down, and some manufacturers slightly lowered their quotes, shifting the market from a one-sided rise to a phase of high-level competition.
Demand shows a typical off-peak season characteristic, becoming the main factor suppressing market performance. The operating rate of downstream 100% polyester yarn factories in China remains around 66%, with limited room for improvement. In the face of high raw material prices, yarn factories are cautious in their purchases, mostly only replenishing as needed, and have a weak willingness to actively build up large inventories. The recovery of terminal autumn and winter textile orders in China has not met earlier market expectations, limiting the space for further significant increases in short fiber prices.
Analysts believe that in the short term, polyester staple fiber is likely to continue its high-level fluctuation pattern, with ongoing battles between bulls and bears. Cost-side support, including the potential for crude oil and PTA to remain strong in phases, combined with continued production cuts by staple fiber companies, means that inventory pressure for spot goods is not significant, providing a bottom-line support for prices. During the "Golden September, Silver October" textile peak season, there is still an expectation of a recovery in end-user demand. If autumn and winter orders are released in large numbers, and downstream restocking begins, there is an opportunity for staple fiber prices to rise further. However, there are still some risks. If downstream orders continue to fall short of expectations, high prices may suppress purchasing, and as upstream PTA maintenance facilities gradually restart, increasing the supply of raw materials, polyester staple fiber could face downward pressure.
