September 21st, news:
In September, the price of polyester staple fiber increased significantly due to rising raw material costs. However, the recovery of downstream terminal demand did not meet the peak season expectations, constraining the upward momentum, and the market entered a phase of cost and demand competition. As of September 21, the benchmark price for polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm) was 8,645 CNY per ton, an increase of 9% from early September, with the spot price reaching a relatively high range for the year.
The cost side is the core driving force behind the current round of short fiber price increases. International crude oil, influenced by geopolitical factors, has remained strong, driving up the prices of PTA and ethylene glycol, directly increasing the production costs of polyester short fibers. Although PTA facilities that were previously under maintenance have gradually restarted, and supply is being released, the fluctuations in crude oil still dominate the overall direction of polyester raw material prices, providing a strong bottom support for short fiber spot prices. However, the processing profit of polyester short fibers continues to be at a low level, with most enterprises maintaining a loss or barely profitable state. The increase in upstream costs is difficult to fully pass on to the downstream, and the recovery of factory profits is not ideal.
On the supply side, the industry relies on flexible production control to balance the market. Due to profit compression, some short fiber facilities have entered maintenance or reduced loads, with the industry's operating rate falling back to the 61%-65% range, actively contracting a certain amount of production. Factory inventories remain low, providing some support to spot prices. However, if raw material prices remain high and maintenance facilities resume production, there is a possibility of an increase in market supply, which would limit the upward potential for prices.
Demand has exhibited the characteristic of “strong season, weak demand,” becoming the primary drag on market conditions. Downstream pure polyester yarn mills have kept operating rates around 66%, with only limited improvement. Faced with high staple‑fiber prices, yarn mills are largely adopting a rigid‑demand procurement approach, showing little willingness to proactively build up inventories on a large scale; overall sales and production remain at roughly 40%. While some autumn/winter domestic orders have emerged, they are mostly small or short‑term, lacking sustainability. As the National Day holiday approaches, certain spinning companies plan to cut output or shut down equipment, making a significant, explosive surge in short‑term demand unlikely.
Looking ahead, polyester staple fiber is likely to remain rangebound at elevated levels in the near term. Crude oil and PTA prices are providing support, but with weak end‑user demand, a sustained sharp rally appears unlikely. Going forward, two key factors will be closely monitored: first, price volatility in international crude oil, PTA, and ethylene glycol; second, downstream yarn mills’ operating rates and whether autumn/winter textile orders show any meaningful improvement. If peak-season demand stays subdued while upstream PTA supply continues to ramp up, short‑fiber prices could face a pullback once cost‑driven support fades. Conversely, if end‑user orders surge and downstream players begin restocking, short‑fiber prices may see an upward correction.
