September 30th, according to reports
On Tuesday, September 29, international oil prices closed sharply lower, weighed down by a confluence of negative factors: signs that Middle Eastern crude exports are resuming, progress in U.S.-Iran indirect talks, and reports that the United States plans to release strategic petroleum reserves. WTI fell below the $90 mark, and both benchmark crudes retreated to multi‑session lows.
I. Market Trend
New York time, September 29, 14:30 (Beijing time, September 30, 02:30): NYMEX November WTI crude oil futures fell $3.22, down 3.48%, settling at $89.38 per barrel; ICE November Brent crude oil futures dropped $2.69, down 2.6%, settling at $102.59 per barrel; the December Brent contract declined $1.67, settling at $96.16 per barrel.
2. Trend Analysis
Middle East export routes resume, significantly reducing supply risks for China
The most critical driver of this round of oil price decline comes from the improved outlook for Middle Eastern crude oil exports, with the geopolitical supply premium rapidly dissipating. Saudi Arabia has resumed loading oil tankers at Yanbu Port: According to traders and shipping data, after the resumption of operations on Saudi Arabia's east-west oil pipeline, it has restarted loading oil tankers from the Red Sea port of Yanbu, significantly improving the export outlook for the Middle East. Industry practitioners stated that the increased volume of oil transported through Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline is putting pressure on futures prices, and as U.S.-Iran negotiations continue to advance, although both sides remain far apart in their positions, they are both seeking ways to exit the conflict — "the more oil that flows out of the Middle East, the less bargaining power Iran has."
Middle East export volume has rebounded to its highest level since before the war: Kpler data shows that in September, crude oil exports from Middle Eastern oil-producing countries have risen to 16.328 million barrels per day, the highest level since the outbreak of the US-Israeli conflict against Iran at the end of February, confirming the recovery of supply.
The United States plans to release up to 40 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve through a “swap” arrangement.
On the 29th, the Office of Petroleum Reserves Management at the U.S. Department of Energy issued a solicitation to release up to 40 million barrels of crude oil into the market through “swap” arrangements. This release is part of a broader agreement reached in March, under which Washington agreed to lend 172 million barrels, alongside roughly 30 IEA member countries, for a total global release of 400 million barrels. In June, the United States proposed lending the final 40 million barrels covered by that agreement, but companies only consented to borrow about 500,000 barrels. Energy Secretary Kerry stated that the U.S. and Japan have fulfilled their commitments, but “several European member countries have released only a small fraction of the crude oil and refined products they pledged.” This move has further eased market concerns about supply tightness.
U.S. Employing Multiple Measures to Curb Diesel and Gasoline Prices
To curb the surge in oil prices triggered by the conflict, the U.S. government has adopted a multi-pronged approach: it has urged the European Union to tap into its emergency diesel reserves to bring global prices down, while accusing some EU member states of failing to release their full pledged stockpiles.
Regulatory easing: The United States is considering allowing the broader sale of red-dyed diesel—exempting certain buyers from federal fuel taxes—as one measure to curb sharply rising prices and as a key alternative to the diesel export ban. On the same day, European diesel futures edged lower, while U.S. diesel futures rose 2.6%, reflecting divergent market trends between the U.S. and European markets.
Indirect U.S.-Iran Talks Underway
Signs of diplomatic de-escalation have emerged in U.S.-Iran relations: On the 28th, President Trump confirmed at the White House that U.S. and Iranian negotiators had exchanged information through mediators, with indirect talks commencing that morning; meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif led a delegation to New York to meet with mediators and discuss the latest proposals. However, Trump dismissed media reports claiming he was “willing to lift sanctions and unfreeze funds in exchange for Iranian nuclear concessions,” firmly stating that he has not set any conditions for ending the conflict. As diplomatic efforts advance, significant differences remain on both sides’ red lines, leaving oil prices subject to uncertainty.
Inventory Data: API Shows Unexpected Increase in U.S. Crude and Gasoline Stocks
The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that, as of the week ending September 25: crude oil inventories increased by 1.02 million barrels (market expectations had been for a decline of 264,000 barrels, indicating an unexpected build); gasoline inventories rose by 2.99 million barrels (versus an expected drop of 500,000 barrels, underscoring an unexpectedly large build); and distillate inventories fell by roughly 286,000 barrels (against an anticipated decrease of 200,000 barrels). Overall, the API data points to bearish sentiment, with the build in refined‑product inventories further confirming a marginal weakening in terminal demand—consistent with the recent pullback in oil prices. The official EIA weekly report is scheduled for release at 10:30 p.m. Beijing time on Wednesday, serving as a key benchmark for subsequent verification.
III. Future Outlook
Crude oil analysts believe that, in the short term, the central pricing dynamic has shifted from “geopolitical supply panic” to a repricing phase characterized by “geopolitical de‑escalation, supply recovery, and subdued demand.” Consequently, the near-term trend is one of a sustained unwinding of the geopolitical premium, with the oil price center of gravity moving noticeably lower.
The future remains a mix of bullish and bearish factors. Bearish factors include Saudi Arabia resuming oil loading, an increase in Middle Eastern exports, progress in US-Iran talks, and the US planning to release strategic reserves. Bullish factors include ongoing disagreements in the US-Iran negotiations, unresolved conflicts in the Middle East, and the risk of supply disruptions not being completely eliminated. Overall, considering the current supply and demand fundamentals and the uncertainties of risks, the room for further significant declines in oil prices should be limited, and the market should not be overly bearish.
