On November 4, 2026, the spot average price of isooctanol in China edged down. Based on quantitative analysis using the mean‑difference method, the current isooctanol market is in a mild correction phase with a bearish bias. Prices remain near one‑year highs, leaving limited room for further gains, and the short‑term outlook points to heightened volatility and weakening momentum. Industry participants should closely monitor upstream propylene cost fluctuations and changes in downstream demand for plasticizers such as DOP and DBP.
I. Table for Calculating Changes in Mean Differences
| Type of Mean Difference | Value on November 4, 2026 | Value on November 3, 2026 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Mean Difference (D5) | -66.67 | -13.33 | - |
| 10-Day Mean Difference (D10) | 188.33 | 275 | - |
| 20-Day Mean Difference (D20) | 315.84 | 282.5 | + |
Note: The latest available data is current as of November 4, 2026; real-time data is recommended.
II. Signal State Determination
The current three average difference change direction combinations are (－, －, ＋), which aligns with the signal of a mild correction (bearish, corrective nature) in a volatile market.
III. Conclusions on Trend Directions
The short-term trend is choppy (bearish).
Judgment Reason: The 5-day and 10-day average differences have decreased compared to the previous day, while only the 20-day average difference has increased. The changes in the three average differences are not completely consistent, which does not meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend. This falls under the category of a fluctuating market. Combined with the characteristics of the (－, －, ＋) combination, this fluctuation is a mild correction with a slightly bearish nature.
4. Spatial Reference
Isobutanol prices for 60-day, 3-month, and 1-year periods are all at high levels, corresponding to the 5th tier in the 5-tier position classification. The upside is limited, and there is insufficient support for further short-term increases, with significant pressure for a pullback.
V. Fundamental Evidence
Manufacturer Quotes: At the end of October, major manufacturers such as Luxi Chemical, Lihuayi, and Hualu Hengsheng increased their prices for 2-ethylhexanol by 300-500 CNY/ton. After November 2, the quotes continued to decline. On November 4, Luxi Chemical's 2-ethylhexanol price had fallen by 200 CNY/ton compared to November 2, and Hualu Hengsheng's price on November 3 had decreased by 200 CNY/ton compared to October 30. Spot transaction prices also fell in tandem.
Upstream and Downstream Situation: Propylene prices at the upstream end are fluctuating at high levels; cost-side support remains in place, but there is insufficient momentum for further increases. Downstream, purchasing activity for plasticizers such as DOP and DBP is moderate, weakening demand-side support for prices.
6. Trend Chart Display
VII. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
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