ANRPC: Global natural rubber demand is expected to increase by 9.3% to 14.17 million tons in 2021

ANRPC's latest August report predicts that in 2021, global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 2% year-on-year to 13.86 million tons. Among them, Thailand decreased by 3.5%, Indonesia increased by 2.8%, China increased by 21.4%, India increased by 15.3%, Vietnam increased by 2%, and Malaysia increased by 3%.

Global natural rubber production in August is expected to increase slightly by 0.9% to 1.238 million tons. Among them, Thailand fell by 4.8%, Indonesia increased by 4.2%, Vietnam remained flat, and Malaysia increased by 1%.

With the relaxation of global containment measures, major economies are showing signs of recovery, especially China and India. This results in global natural rubber consumption expected to increase by 9.3% year-on-year to 14.166 million tons in 2021. Among them, China increased by 4.7%, India increased by 14.4%, Thailand decreased by 4.6%, and Malaysia decreased slightly by 0.5%.

Global natural rubber consumption is expected to increase 3.4% to 1.135 million tons in August. Among them, China fell 4.6%, India fell 10.7%, Thailand fell 14.5%, and Malaysia fell 9.8%.

In August, both the spot and futures market prices of natural rubber showed a downward trend. Although there is a downward trend, the average FOB price of standard rubber has improved this month. The average daily FOB price of STR20 has risen by US$0.11 to US$1.72 per kilogram; the average price of SMR20 has risen by US$0.09 to US$1.73 per kilogram.

In terms of smoke sheet glue, the average daily FOB price deviation between RSS3 in Bangkok and RSS4 in India further expanded in August. It was 0.5 US dollars per kilogram in July and increased to 0.6 US dollars per kilogram in August.

In addition to fundamentals, natural rubber spot market prices are also affected by other external factors, such as inventory in the regional futures market, oil, global economy, etc. However, good natural rubber market fundamentals may offset its adverse effects.