Bisphenol A market is hard to say good in November

"Golden Nine and Silver Ten" suffered a cold winter, and bisphenol A fell broadly for the second time in the year. Since September, BPA has entered a downward channel. From tepid trading to hard-to-find orders, the market fell from a narrow range to a sharp decline. The broad decline in September ended, and crude oil rose sharply during the holiday after the National Day. Pulling pure benzene and other raw materials up sharply, the raw material phenol/acetone rose sharply on the first trading day after the holiday. Supported by the cost side, bisphenol A went up against the trend, and the focus of market negotiations quickly increased from 22,167 CNY/ton to 24,200 CNY/ton. But the good times are not long, and the downstream is not able to follow the rise. With the new equipment put into production and the East China auctions continue to fall, the market has entered a situation where the decline is difficult to stop. So far, the domestic mainstream market offer has dropped to 20,200 CNY/ton. The bid price was 20,200 CNY/ton, and the latest auction price on the 26th was 19,500 CNY/ton.

As can be seen from the figure, the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" bisphenol A market fell broadly. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the bisphenol A commodity index on October 27 was 195.05, which was 26.8% lower than the 266.41 points on September 1. This is an increase of 170.56% from the lowest point of 72.09 on April 06, 2020.

ECH, a related product, soared in September, eroding the decline in BPA and giving up cost space
　　
ECH skyrocketed in September. Affected by the "dual control", some devices dropped and stopped, the overall operating rate of the market declined, the shortage of supply increased, the "double festival" approached, and the downstream market still had demand for stocking due to pre-orders, and market quotations rose sharply , As the price rises to a high level, the downstream just needs to passively follow up. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the epichlorohydrin commodity index on September 30 was 143.60, a record high in the cycle and the lowest point on September 7, 2016 46.85 points increased by 206.51%. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to present). As ECH continues to rise and continue to squeeze the BPA space, the market's bearish atmosphere has intensified, and intermediaries actively follow up with the market to follow up shipments. Under the guidance of the bidding price of East China and Zhejiang Petrochemical every Wednesday, the downward trend continues to increase. As of the 30th close, Some traders have already indicated that they will no longer offer, and the price fell by nearly 1,000 yuan in one day, and the market offered an offer to 22,167 CNY/ton. The soaring raw material ECH has led to a sharp increase in the cost of epoxy resin. Under the driving force of cost, epoxy resin has to report high, but bisphenol A has to be adjusted back to make use of part of the cost space.
　　

The new device was put into production in October, and the downstream PC operating load dropped sharply
　　
After the National Day, the bisphenol A market rose first and then declined. After the holiday, the crude oil drove the rise of pure benzene during the holiday. 22,167 CNY/ton rose to 24,200 CNY/ton, but the good times did not last long, the demand slump was difficult to change, and the rising trend was ultimately unsustainable. With the production and output of the Tianjin Zhongshan installation, the downstream PC installation load decreased. In addition, in late October, the domestic Overhaul devices are gradually ending, supply is expected to increase but the demand side is difficult and favorable news stimulates, the holders are under pressure to offer lower prices, and the purchase side inquiries are low. A petrochemical auction in East China continues to fall. The latest auction on October 26 reached 19,600 yuan. /Ton, the decline of the bisphenol A market in mid-to-late October is difficult to change.
　　

Downstream epoxy resin and PC equipment operating rate declines, demand shrinks

　　
Under the influence of "dual control", chemical companies are under pressure, and the production of epichlorohydrin and epoxy resin plants is also forced to reduce production. The reduction in operating rate will inevitably reduce the demand for raw materials, and the cost will increase significantly. The follow-up speed is far less than the upside potential of raw materials, and the profit margin is under pressure. The factory's burden is more than just small purchases. The mind of BPA holders is unstable, and they are actively selling at profits. A accelerated its decline. In October, planned and unplanned shutdowns of PC devices continued, aggravating the negative atmosphere in the market, and demand is expected to shrink severely
　　

The bidding of East China Zhejiang Petrochemical fell to 19,500 CNY/ton, and the cumulative decline was 8,300 CNY/ton, guiding the continuous decline of the bisphenol A market

　　
East China Zhejiang Petrochemical’s weekly bidding (the Bisphenol A product station of the Business Club public account announces the bidding price every week), which has a greater impact on the BPA market offer. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the auction ended on September 1st to 27,800 CNY/ton, which was basically in line with market expectations at the time. The bisphenol A market performed tepidly in the first week of September, and the mainstream offers in the market were 28,100-28,300 yuan. /Ton, profitable shippers gradually appeared over the weekend. In the second week, the bidding reached 27,400 CNY/ton, down 400 CNY/ton from the previous month. The downstream epoxy resin and PC end performed weakly this week, and the demand for raw materials was mainly demanded. The bearish atmosphere in the market was heating up. -27700 CNY/ton. In the third week, the bidding reached RMB 26,500/ton, a decrease of RMB 900/ton from the previous month. This week, it was mainly due to the impact of the surge in ECH, which greatly inhibited the enthusiasm of epoxy resin for the purchase of bisphenol A products. The downstream also started under the influence of dual controls. The rate of decline, factories mostly consume inventory. In the fourth week, the bidding reached 24,600 CNY/ton, and the downward trend was magnified again, intensifying the bearish atmosphere in the market. As of Friday's closing, the market was quoted at 24,000 CNY/ton. After the National Day, the opening bidding price on the 9th ended at 22,100 CNY/ton, the two rounds of bidding ended at 20,200 CNY/ton on October 20, and the auction fell to 19,500 CNY/ton on October 26, which dealt a heavy blow to the market.
　　

Towards theend of the month, the cost impact will accelerate the decline of the BPA market

In the fourth week of September, the raw material phenol and acetone market turned and fell, the cost support weakened, and the center of gravity continued to fall. Domestic factories concentrated on lowering the listing prices of phenol and acetone. Spared. In October, the raw material end phenolic ketone market entered a downward channel again. On the 27th, the acetone plant opened an order to be lowered by 200 CNY/ton, and the market followed the downward trend. So far, the East China market has offered acetone to 6,400 CNY/ton, and the East China phenol market has offered to yuan. /Ton. Although BPA continues to fall, the profit margin is still considerable. From a cost perspective, BPA still has room for a downward trend.

The operating rates of domestic bisphenol A plants are as follows:
　　
At the end of October, the major domestic factories Nantong Xingchen and Changchun Chemical Plants completed their overhauls. A 120,000-ton/year bisphenol A plant in Tianjin Zhongsha was put into operation. Another new plant, the Pingmei Shenma 130,000-ton/year plant, was planned for trial operation in the near future. , The domestic supply is expected to increase in the future. However, during the same period, the operating rate of the downstream epoxy resin market is unlikely to fluctuate due to cost pressures. With the continued order-based procurement, the operating rate of the PC-side industry may continue to remain low. There is no plan to resume work in the near future. At present, it is difficult for both ends of supply and demand to be more favorable. From the perspective of the industry, after a round of sharp rises, the chemical industry index has turned down. Buyers and sellers in the industry are cautious and wait-and-see sentiment has increased. Impact, as far as the current situation is concerned, the bisphenol A market may continue to bottom out in November.