Why is China's economic growth so stable?

Over the years, China's economy has maintained steady growth, and the GDP growth rate has not experienced any major ups and downs. In response to this situation, voices have questioned whether China's economic data are "unreliable" because GDP data in other countries are always fluctuating. In response, Mao Shengyong, director and spokesman of the General Statistics Department of National Economy of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that China's economy has shifted from high-speed growth in the past to high-quality development, with economic growth shifting from high-speed growth in the past to medium-high-speed growth. While economic growth slows down, the stability of economic operation is further strengthened, which is a reflection of the changes in the stage of economic development, rather than smoothing the fluctuation of economic growth. The total amount of China's economy in 2018 exceeded 90 trillion yuan. Increasing aggregate volume means not only that economic growth may slow down, but also that economic growth will be more stable and not prone to big ups and downs. From the structural point of view, China's service industry has maintained rapid growth since it became the largest industry. In the first quarter of this year, the contribution of the tertiary industry to GDP growth reached 61.3%. At the same time, the contribution of consumption to economic growth has been consolidated, with the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure reaching 65.1% in the first quarter. At both ends of production and demand, the volatility of the two dominant forces, service industry and consumption, is relatively small, which will naturally lead to more stable GDP growth. From the policy point of view, in recent years, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council have continuously innovated macro-control. On the basis of strengthening regional control, they have continuously strengthened directional control, precise control and camera control. They have better coped with the downward pressure of the economy and ensured the stable operation of the economy in a reasonable range. From the international point of view, when developed countries such as Europe, America and Japan publish quarterly GDP growth data, they mainly publish annualized rate first and then annual growth rate. "What is the concept of annualization rate? For example, by comparing the second quarter of this year with the first quarter of this year, the incomparable seasonal factors are eliminated. First, we get the annular growth rate of the second quarter to the first quarter. On this basis, assuming that the annular growth rate of the fourth quarter of this year is the same as that of this quarter, we extrapolate it to the whole year, so that the rate is called annular rate. Mao Shengyong said that if the second quarter annualized growth rate is negative, the annualized annualized rate is negative. The annualized rate will magnify the impact of the seasonal data, either positive or negative, and the volatility of the data will naturally increase.

For example, in the four quarters of 2018, the highest quarterly GDP growth rate in the United States is 3.0%, the lowest quarterly growth rate is 2.6%, and the fluctuation range is 0.4 percentage points throughout the year, but if we look at the annualized rate, the highest quarterly growth rate is 4.2%, the lowest quarterly growth rate is 2.2%, and the fluctuation range between the four quarters is 2 percentage points. China's published data are comparative growth. If we use China's ring-to-quarter growth rate to push the annualized rate, the volatility is also higher than the year-to-year growth rate. If we look at the same year-on-year growth rate of European and American countries, their GDP growth rate is relatively stable. Overall, China's economic performance is relatively stable and in line with the law of development. At the same time, it also reflects the effect of our policy regulation and control. It does not mean that statistical data should be deliberately ironed to smooth out economic fluctuations. Mao Shengyong said.