CPI is expected to increase by about 2.4% year-on-year.

From June 19 to 20, the 2019 China Coal and Coal Chemical Industry Congress was held in Shanghai International Conference Center. Lu Yanchun, Director of the National Development and Reform Commission Price Monitoring Center, attended the conference and delivered a speech. Lu Yanchun pointed out that May and June of this year are expected to be the highs of CPI for the whole year, and then will fall back, and there may be a slight rebound at the end of the year. CPI is expected to increase by about 2.4% year-on-year, with little possibility of breaking through 3%.

Lu Yanchun said that since this year, especially at present, all sectors of society have paid great attention to the current price situation, and there has been a lot of discussion. Especially in the past two months, the prices of domestic pig, vegetables, fruits and other livelihood commodities, as well as sandstone, concrete and other building materials products in some areas have risen. Especially since China and the United States imposed tariffs last month, inflation expectations began to increase. Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released inflation data in May. CPI rose by 2.7%, 0.2% compared with last month. The average CPI rose by 2.2% in January-May. On the whole, CPI is still in a moderate range. A few commodity prices have risen. We think it is a short-term structural increase. From the price point of view, Lu Yanchun said that this year's grain production situation is good and this year's summer harvest has been finalized, so the domestic grain supply is relatively sufficient and the price is relatively stable, which lays a good foundation for the stability of the overall price. Vegetables and fruits, which rose more obviously in the early period, will gradually fall with the increase of supply. From the monitoring situation, in addition to apple, pear and a few other varieties, most of the recent seasonal fruit and vegetable prices are falling, especially vegetable prices fall very fast, seasonal fruit prices are also stable after the market, of course, apple, pear, these two varieties are very special, prices are still at a high level. Because of the particularity of the epidemic of swine fever in Africa, the price of live pigs is still running at a high level for a period of time. According to past historical experience, the retail price of pork will not increase substantially with the rise of the price of live pigs.

From the point of view of industrial products, Lu Yanchun said that the current international oil price trend is uncertain, but the global crude oil supply is relatively balanced, the U.S. stock price has a stable basis, coal, steel, non-ferrous industries with China's supply-side structural reform has achieved phased results, the industry's advanced production capacity gradually released, environmental protection production restrictions are no longer one-size-fits-all, the main production origin. The supply of materials will increase. Demand is facing downward economic pressure and interest cycle adjustment hedging. The price of industrial products will generally decline slightly. From the point of view of service price, in recent years, the service supply has been greatly supported by government policies and the continuous entry of private capital. The cultivation and development of service market is relatively fast, and the service price has increased steadily or slightly.

"CPI will not increase substantially in the future, whether from food, industrial consumer goods or services. We judge that in the future, grain prices will be basically stable, meat prices will rise, industrial prices may rise or fall more, and service prices will remain stable and slightly rising. Lu Yanchun said.

Lu Yanchun said that our country has a huge market, abundant human resources, a sound industrial system, and the institutional advantages of the social system to concentrate on major events. So in the long run, we have full confidence in the prospects of the whole economic development. After years of development, the national economy has a relatively complete industrial system, perfect infrastructure. From the perspective of labor force and talent reserve, China has 900 million people of working age, of which 170 million are highly qualified talents with higher education and vocational education, which has laid a solid foundation for China. Since the end of 2015, supply-side structural reform has promoted supply, led to quality, power and efficiency changes, and provided continuous impetus for future high-quality economic development.