Shanxi Coking Coal Price Index Runs Smoothly

In this period (June 12 - June 18, 2019), the coking coal market is stable as a whole, and the price index of Xinhua Shanxi coking coal is running smoothly.

Specifically, the composite index reported 1069 points, the long association index reported 1061 points, the spot index reported 1077 points, and the bidding index reported 1053 points, all of which were the same as the previous period. The main representative specifications are unchanged from the previous period. According to the economic data, in May, RMB loans increased by 1.18 trillion yuan, social financing increased by 1.4 trillion yuan, local debt issued by 125.1 billion yuan, M2 balance increased by 8.5% year on year, which is still below market expectations, and macro-pessimistic expectations still need to be repaired. In May, the growth rate of new real estate construction area fell sharply. In May, the land purchase area and housing sales area remained negative compared with the same period last year, and the demand of real estate industry declined significantly.

In May, the PMI of manufacturing industry was 49.4, which was lower than the Kurong Line. The situation of manufacturing industry needs to be observed. For downstream steel products, although the traditional peak season has already ended, the blast furnace start-up rate of steel mills in this period is equal to that in the previous period, and the demand of steel mills is still strong. But June is the traditional off-season of the steel market, seasonal terminal demand has weakened, but considering the cost support of iron ore, the steel market is stable in the short term or weak. In the middle reaches of coke, the supply-end coke enterprises have a high production enthusiasm due to profit recovery, and the start-up rate has increased slightly in the current period; the blast furnace start-up rate of the demand-end steel plants has maintained a high level. At present, the demand of downstream steel in off-season is declining, the mentality of steel enterprises to suppress coke price is getting stronger and stronger, and the coke steel game is becoming more and more serious. In this period, the inventory of coke ports is declining slightly, but the inventory of coking plants and steel mills is on the rise, the overall coke inventory is on the rise and at a high level, the terminal demand is weakening, and the coke price will be back in the later period. In the aspect of coke in the upstream, the environmental protection inspection in Shanxi area of the supply end is getting stricter, but considering the delay of clearance of Australian coal or other imports, the marginal supply has limited downward space; the demand end is affected by the seasonal pullback of demand in the downstream steel industry, and there is pressure on coke demand. Considering the environmental protection expectation of downstream coke, there is downward risk in coke demand; at present, the overall inventory of coke coal exists. Continuing to rise substantially, coking coal stocks are still operating at medium and high levels, and coking enterprises are not willing to replenish their warehouses. At present, terminal demand has slowed down, and coking coal prices may be weaker.