How to Solve the First Half Year Economic Report Card

As far as the current cycle is concerned, China's economic growth rate of about 6% is actually the most comfortable interval, which can not only achieve long-term goals, but also have room for structural reforms. On July 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released the main macroeconomic data for the first half of the year. In the first half of the year, China's gross domestic product (GDP) was 45093.3 billion yuan, an increase of 6.3% in terms of comparable prices. Quarterly, the first quarter of the year-on-year growth of 6.4%, growth of 6.2% in the second quarter.

For China's economic growth of 6.2% in the second quarter, some experts have interpreted this figure as the lowest quarterly data in nearly 30 years, and some simply said it was the "worst" data in 30 years. The quarterly growth rate of 6.2% is indeed the lowest quarterly data since 1990, but equating the "lowest" with the "worst" directly shows the depth of their "misunderstanding" of China's economy.

Put aside the so-called economic principles, as far as common sense is concerned, how can the economic growth rate in 1990 be comparable to that in 2019? What was China's total economic output in 1990 and what is it now? What was the stage of China's economy in 1990, and what is the stage of China's economy now?

Direct comparison of economic data of different periods, different periods, different stages, different scales, different structures and different gold content is not only a problem of misreading.

Economic development is actually the same as a person's growing body. It's normal for a person to grow a few centimeters a year at the age of seven or eight, but it's frightening for a person to grow a few centimeters a year at the age of thirty or forty. Although there is no "growth" in appearance at the age of thirty or forty, the growth and change in their hearts are obviously not comparable at the age of seven or eight. This is the same as China's economy. After 40 years of rapid economic growth, it is inevitable for China's economy to say goodbye to high growth and enter a normal growth stage. When we enter the normal growth stage, it seems that the growth rate is not as fast as before, but the changes in the structure and connotation of the economy can not be compared in the past high growth stage. The growth rate of 6% or more is not low. The past double-digit growth, mainly in the "long body" stage, now more than 6% growth, mainly in the economic structure and quality. In my opinion, the growth rate of more than 6% is very good now. There are two reasons for this. First, compared with other countries with a history of high-speed growth, such as Japan, Korea and other countries, after the end of high-speed growth, economic growth has basically returned to about 3% or even no growth, while China can still maintain a growth rate of more than 6%. Long, it's not easy;

Secondly, from the perspective of China's own economic momentum, China's economy will have full growth momentum in the expected cycle in the future. Even in the context of Global trade frictions, we can still see that China's economy still has great dividends in consumption, urbanization, technological innovation and industrial upgrading, which is called "resilience". For example, in the case of export hindrance, total retail sales of social consumer goods grew by 7.2%, 8.6% and 9.8% in the third quarter, respectively. Consumption has replaced exports as the main engine of China's economy;

Third, whether 6.3% in the first half or 6.2% in the second quarter, China still performs globally. The best economy. Some say that India and Vietnam have outpaced China in economic growth. But when China is on their scale, our economic growth is double-digit.

It is said that these are not "overflowing beauty", but emphasized that the data of China's economy should return to the basic common sense. Needless to say, there are some serious challenges and difficulties in China's economy. Trade frictions have an impact on everyone's expectations; real estate data are beginning to show signs of weakness; and long-term structural problems in the economy take time to resolve.

But in my opinion, the 6.3% growth rate is not worth worrying about. If China's economy can maintain such a speed in the next cycle, it will be amazing. By contrast, if some misunderstandings lead to policies that focus too much on the data itself and neglect other, more important issues, it is even more worrying. For example, how to better launch exciting reform measures to boost expectations, how to reduce taxes on a larger scale, how to launch a long-term mechanism to encourage consumption, how to promote innovation in China, and so on. These have little to do with the current data, but they are the key to the long-term stability of China's economy.

More clearly, compared with China's economic data itself, I am more worried about the incorrect interpretation of the data, which leads to excessive pursuit of economic growth, thus returning to the old road of stimulation and abandoning the adherence to structural reform. As far as the current cycle is concerned, China's economic growth rate of about 6% is actually the most comfortable interval, which not only achieves long-term goals, but also has room for structural reforms.