Coal prices at ports have stabilized and coastal coal market pressures remain

Despite the arrival of midsummer, thermal power in South China has gradually entered the peak season, and the substitution of hydropower for thermal power has gradually emerged in the case of more rainwater than in the same period in previous years. In the case of high inventory and low daily consumption of power plants, the demand for electricity and coal is still weak. In the short term, the domestic coal market is generally weak and stable. This week, port coal prices will stop falling and stabilize, but downward pressure still exists. In July and August, we will continue to maintain the situation of high stocks of power plants, low anchor ships and low coal prices at ports around the Bohai Sea. Coal prices will not rise substantially.

1. After the active coal storage before, the high stock of power plants experienced the off-season of coal use in the second quarter, and the inventory of power plants continued to rise. Before summer came, the power plants had reached the highest level of their own inventory. In summer, in the first half of July, the weather in the south is cool, and the civil electricity load is not high. In addition, the sluggish electricity consumption in high-energy-consuming industries such as cement has kept the overall coal consumption of power plants at a low level. The daily consumption of the six coastal power plants is about 600,000 tons, of which the daily consumption of Zhengneng power plant once dropped to 72,000 tons, which is almost the same as that during the Spring Festival. Starting from July 19, the daily consumption of coastal power plants has risen to more than 650,000 tons, and the daily consumption of Zhengneng Power Plant, a landmark power plant, has increased to 102,000 tons.

2. Daily consumption of power plants increases, but in the case of high inventory, the enthusiasm of pulling and transporting can hardly be improved. From the end of July to August. Even if there is a continuous hot and muggy weather in the south, daily consumption of power plants rises to 700,000 tons, or even 800,000 tons, but under the condition of high inventory of power plants and a certain amount of imported coal, domestic coal procurement is made. Limited increments make it difficult to boost the coal market strongly. It is expected that in summer, power plants will still mainly consume their own stocks, mainly pull and transport long-term coals, and purchase a small amount of coal in the market. In addition, 12 key UHV transmission lines invested by the State have been put into operation one after another. Since this spring, the proportion of external input electricity in seven coastal provinces and cities has increased significantly. At the end of June, the Development and Reform Commission issued a circular to deploy "peak-to-summer" security work, requiring power generation enterprises to conscientiously implement the minimum and maximum inventory system and purchase coal through multiple channels. In addition, it also requires that the high-quality production capacity of upstream coal be expedited to release and increase production and supply in Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia areas. Xi'an Bureau and Huzhou Bureau have lowered railway freight rates respectively, which has helped coal mines and traders increase the number of shipments.

In accordance with the requirements of the Development and Reform Commission, coal mines have increased production, railway departments have accelerated transportation, and ports have actively taken over and unloaded to ensure coal supply and transportation. Daqing-Qinhuangdao Line's daily freight volume rose to 1.25 million tons, and the maximum daily freight volume of Mengji Line reached 33 rows. The situation of low import volume and low inventory of Bohai Rim Port in June changed to a large increase. With the centralized Customs clearance and replenishment of imported coal, the completion of coal preparation in summer, the market demand is flat.