Supply and demand situation in coal market will continue to be relaxed

This year, China's economic operation has been steadily improving and advancing, mainly with the demand of the electricity industry warming up. In the first half of the year, the absolute thermal power generation in China increased by only 0.2% compared with the same period last year, while the output of raw coal in China increased by 2.6% to 1758.2 million tons. The main coal consumption hinterland, East and South China, has maintained a small growth trend in coal demand. In the second half of the year, the demand of coal market is still optimistic, and the amount of coal transferred into coastal areas by sea will maintain a growing momentum. This requires strengthened cooperation among mining, road, port, navigation, electricity and other parties to speed up coal turnover and ensure reliable coal supply in the south.

Influenced by the trade war, the weakening of industrial electricity consumption, combined with the continuous squeeze of new energy and foreign electricity, has made the growth rate of thermal power in coastal areas continue to decline, some provinces and municipalities even have negative growth, and the growth rate of coal demand is limited. At present, China's economy is in the middle and late stages of industrialization, and urbanization is advancing rapidly. With the high-quality development of China's economy, especially the innovative development of manufacturing industry, the rapid development of strategic emerging industries such as big data, the continuous improvement of residents'lives, and the substitution of electric vehicles, clean heating and other electric energy will inject new functions into the growth of electricity consumption.

One city in seven coastal provinces is a big coal consumer, and its coal production decreases year by year. Coal imported from the sea keeps increasing, and its dependence on coal in northern ports is deepened. On the upstream side, with the accelerated release of advanced coal production capacity, the main coal producers actively organize production and sales, and coal output and foreign transportation will continue to grow. Major Coal-transporting railways will continue to play an important role; in the first half of this year, 1.2 billion tons of coal were transported by railways nationwide, an increase of 2.3% compared with the same period last year; the amount of coal transported to ports around the Bohai Sea increased by about 11 million tons, providing sufficient supply for Qinhuangdao, Huanghua, Caofeidian and other ports. The main coal harbors - Qinhuangdao, Huanghua and Caofeidian welcomed the balanced arrival of vehicles and vessels, and coal transportation was relatively loose. In the first half of the year, the supply, transportation and demand sectors of the coal market were better than expected. The market coal prices continued to fluctuate in a parabolic manner, with little increase and decrease, and basically maintained a relatively stable operation.

In the second half of the year, the long-term development trend of China's economy will not change from stable to good and steady, and the economic growth will continue to shift to high-quality development, which will further stimulate energy demand. The proportion of electricity in terminal energy consumption is increasing, and the demand for electricity and coal is expected to increase. On the other hand, uncertainties still exist in domestic and foreign economic development; scientific and technological progress, energy-saving and emission reduction of national governance of the atmospheric environment, the substitution of non-fossil energy for coal is increasing, and the growth rate of coal consumption will decline.

In the second half of the year, coal consumption will continue to maintain a steady trend with little room for increment; the release of domestic coal production capacity will accelerate, the capacity of major coal railway transport channels will increase, coal supply capacity will further enhance, and the supply and demand of coal market will continue to maintain a relaxed trend.