Multi-agency forecast: CPI in July rose 2.7% to 2.8% year-on-year.

The National Bureau of Statistics will release July CPI and PPI data on August 9 (this Friday). Many agencies forecast that due to the limited overall increase in food prices in July, non-food prices continued to decline slightly, prices remained stable in July, CPI growth rate was between 2.7% and 2.8% year-on-year, and the overall pressure of price rise was controllable.

"CPI is expected to stabilize at 2.7% in July." Haitong Securities chief economist Jiang Chao pointed out that since July, although pork prices continued to rise, but prices of vegetables and fruits rose first and then fell, food prices overall growth was limited. In terms of industrial product prices, international oil prices, domestic coal prices and steel prices are rising first and then falling. Overall, prices are expected to remain stable in July and CPI is basically flat. Lian Ping, chief economist of the Financial Research Center of Bank of Communications, also thinks that the CPI growth rate in July may be 2.6% - 2.8% year-on-year, with a median value of 2.7%, which is basically flat compared with last month. Li Chao, chief macro-researcher of Huatai Securities Co., Ltd.

, pointed out that from the high-frequency data, the growth rate of pork and fresh vegetables increased in July, while the growth rate of fresh fruits decreased slightly. In summary, the CPI in July may be the year-on-year high; combined with the historical seasonal performance of CPI, inflation in July is expected to rise 0.4% annually and 2.8% annually. Huang Wentao, chief analyst of macro and bond research at CITIC Construction Investment, also expects CPI to grow by 2.8% year on year in July. He pointed out that pork prices continued to rise in July, fruit prices continued to rise as a whole, and the average growth rate of fresh vegetable prices fell slightly year-on-year. In non-food projects, the Development and Reform Commission raised oil prices on July 10, but due to the increase in the base number, it is assumed that the decline in oil prices will increase by about 3 percentage points over the same period of last year.

"Oil prices are still declining year on year at the beginning of the year, and service prices are also affected by the downward economic cycle, so the growth rate of non-food CPI may continue to decline slightly in the first half of the year." Li Chao judged that the CPI growth rate from August to October showed a downward trend compared with the same period last year. At present, the pressure of price rise on the whole is still controllable.

"The significant decrease of CPI tail-warping factors and the effect of VAT tax reduction will also offset the impact of rising pork prices on CPI year-on-year to a certain extent. It is expected that the average increase of CPI year-on-year will be controlled within 2.5%. Lian Ping said. Several agencies indicated that pork prices would continue to be an important factor driving CPI up in the second half of the year. Lian Ping said that the recent CPI maintained a high level compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the price pull of pork-based food. At present, the number of live pigs brought by the plague is still dropping rapidly.

"Affected by the excessive deactivation of African swine plague", it is expected that pork prices will show a moderate increase in the second half of the year, and pork CPI will continue to increase substantially compared with the same period last year. The future uplink rate of pork prices may depend on supply and demand, as well as the replenish speed of major livestock owners on the current low pig stock. Degree." Li Chao said that large and medium-sized pig breeding enterprises could increase the risk of rising pig prices and increase their profit margins. These factors may alleviate the upward threat of pig prices to inflation to a certain extent.

Maintaining basic price stability is an important focus of macro-policy. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a standing meeting of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, which also indicated that in the second half of the year, the supply of autumn grain and live pigs should be paid special attention. Locally, Guangdong, Sichuan, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangxi and other provinces have issued relevant policies or held meetings, emphasizing the development of pig production, ensuring pork supply and mitigating market price fluctuations.