Coal prices will rise strongly by the end of this month

First of all, coal demand remained sluggish in early September. The fluctuation of rising price of origin has not been transmitted to the port and downstream. In the past three days, market inquiries have increased. Traders'quotations have risen by 2-3 CNY/ton in accordance with the index, but the price of the offer is general, and the actual turnover is less. Secondly, downstream snap-up has not been fully launched. There are still 89 days to go before the Daqin Line maintenance period. Although the coal storage of six coastal power plants has dropped to the same period last year, due to the low daily consumption, the number of days available for coal storage is still at a 23-day high. Even in the maintenance period of Daqin Line, in the case of decreasing coal storage in Qingang, users can choose to go to Caofeidian Port and Huanghua Port to pull coal, so they are not in a hurry to send a large number of boats to pull coal depots; and some non-electric users, such as cement, which have been restored, have a large number of pullers'associate coals, so it is difficult to pull coal prices in the market to keep sporadic. It rose sharply. Thirdly, railway transfer is normal. Upstream coal management tickets and pyrotechnics control is very strict, combined with the inverted shipping costs of traders, shipping enthusiasm is not high; at present, besides Qinhuangdao port, the coal storage in other ports around the Bohai Sea is in the middle and high level, ship and other cargo phenomena are not serious, and the quality of coal is not in short supply index; The two-day rise was mainly driven by better demand for low-sulfur, low-water coal and high-quality Mongolian coal. It is expected that this round of coal price increases will be limited.

At the end of September and October, the price of coal will rise strongly. It is expected that the price of coal will rise by about 20 CNY/ton. The price of power coal in 5500 cards market is expected to break through the 600 CNY/ton mark. The main reasons are as follows:

At the end of January, September and the beginning of October, Daqin Line overhaul has entered a critical stage. The impact of overhaul on coal import has gradually emerged. There is a shortage of high-quality coal in ports such as Qinhuangdao and Jingtang Port, and cargo phenomena such as ships have begun to appear, resulting in difficulties in pulling coal from Changxie and driving up spot goods.

Safety inspection is becoming stricter and stricter. More and more coal mines are passively depotted and depleted. It is difficult for high quality coal to be transported abroad, and the coal market is tight.

Affected by typhoon, in the first half of September, the coastal areas of Zhejiang, Shanghai and southern Jiangsu were covered by gale, and some ships avoided the platform ahead of time. Power plants were forced to consume their own stocks and purchase coal from Port 2, resulting in a decline in coal storage. After the typhoon, a new round of purchasing peak is coming, and coal transportation along the north-south route will tend to be complicated.

After National Day, cement and chemical industries resumed production and resumed work one after another, which led to the increase of coal consumption and promoted the rise of coal market.