The total value of China's foreign trade imports and exports increased by 3.6%

On September 8, the General Administration of Customs announced the import and export situation of China's foreign trade in the first eight months. The data show that the total value of China's import and export of goods trade in the first eight months of this year was 20.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.6% over the same period last year (the same below). Among them, exports increased by 6.1% to 10.95 trillion yuan, imports by 9.18 trillion yuan to 0.8% and trade surplus by 1.77 trillion yuan to 46%. Among them, in August, China's total import and export value was 2.72 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.1%. Export was 1.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.6%; import was 1.24 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.6%; trade surplus was 239.6 billion yuan, an increase of 41.8%.

"Export growth in August was lower than expected on a year-on-year basis." China Merchants Securities (17.800, 0.54, 3.13%) analyst Liu Yaxin told Securities Daily that the global trade chain has been affected, China's processing trade exports have maintained a low growth rate, and the overall export growth rate is still at a low level. At the same time, the global economic fundamentals show no obvious positive signals and do not support a significant improvement in export growth. Li Chao, chief macro-researcher of Huatai Securities, told Securities Daily that exports were weak in August. From the basic point of view, the downturn of global economy and international relations are two major factors leading to the downturn of China's export growth. According to the demand-side data, the PMI of manufacturing industry in the euro area was 47.0% in August, while that of manufacturing industry in Japan was 49.3%, both of which were below the ups and downs line. The EU has been below the ups and downs line for seven consecutive months. On the import side, Li Chao said that at the end of July, the Politburo meeting mentioned the need to tap the potential of domestic demand, "do not use real estate as a short-term means of stimulating the economy", and the core is to stabilize demand through structural reform on the supply side. It is worth noting that general trade has increased and its proportion has increased. In the first eight months, China's general trade imports and exports totaled 12.03 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.4%, accounting for 59.8% of our total foreign trade value, an increase of 1 percentage point over the same period last year. Among them, exports amounted to 6.44 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.4%; imports amounted to 5.59 trillion yuan, an increase of 1%; and trade surplus amounted to 849.49 billion yuan, an increase of 1.4 times.

Liu Yaxin said that the growth rate was maintained at a relatively high base in the same period last year, and the growth rate of general trade imports had improved, reflecting domestic demand or tending to be stable. From the trade balance in August, considering the base factor, tariff effect, basic situation and price factor, it is expected that the export growth rate will decline in September, while the import growth rate will rise, and the trade surplus will expand slightly compared with August. Fu Jiafan, Macro Analyst at Shen Wanhongyuan, told Securities Daily that since the beginning of the year, exports to Africa and the United States have remained generally stable. In August, exports fluctuated slightly, and are expected to maintain stable growth in the following months. At the beginning of August, the renminbi depreciated again or generally promoted the follow-up export slightly. In addition, batch goods in mid-December may have some rush to export from October to November, while the export base in December is low. Overall analysis shows that exports will not be overly pessimistic during the year.