In August, the balance of real economy loans increased by 12.6% year on year

On September 11, the People's Bank of China released August financial statistics, stock of social financing scale and incremental data. The data show that in August 2019, the broad money (M2) grew by 8.2% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage points higher than the end of last month, which was the same as the same period last year. The narrow money (M1) grew by 3.4% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points higher than the end of last month, and 0.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year. It is worth noting that in August, RMB loans increased by 1.21 trillion yuan, an increase of 66.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year, and social financing increased by 1.98 trillion yuan, an increase of 37.6 billion yuan over the same period last year. Reporters noted that the balance of Renminbi loans issued to the real economy was 146.82 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.6% compared with the same period last year; in terms of structure, the balance of Renminbi loans issued to the real economy at the end of August accounted for 68% of the stock of social financing scale in the same period, which was 1.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year.

M1 increased by 3.4%, M2 increased by 8.2%

Specifically, at the end of August, the balance of broad currency (M2) increased by 8.2%, 0.1 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month, which was the same as that at the same period of last year; the balance of narrow currency (M1) increased by 3.4%, 0.3 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month, and 0.5 percentage points lower than that at the same period of last year. Percentage; the balance of currencies in circulation (M0) was 7.32 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8% over the same period last year. The net cash put in that month was 46.3 billion yuan.

Journalists noticed that the growth rates of M1 and M2 in August had rebounded from last month's data. The data show that M1 increased by 0.4%, 2%, 4.6%, 2.9%, 3.4%, 4.4% and 3.1% respectively in the first seven months of 2019, while M2 increased by 8.4%, 8.6%, 8.5%, 8.5%, 8.1% respectively. Reporters noted that the growth rate of M2 increased by 8.6% year-on-year in March 2019, reaching a 13-month high, and remained at 8.5% in April, May and June 2019, with a slight decline in July. It is worth mentioning that RMB loans increased by 1.21 trillion yuan in August, an increase of 66.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year, while RMB loans increased by 1.06 trillion yuan in July, an increase of 397.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year. In terms of sub-sectors, loans from household departments increased by 653.8 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 199.8 billion yuan, medium-term and long-term loans increased by 454 billion yuan; loans from non-financial enterprises and organs increased by 651.3 billion yuan, of which short-term loans decreased by 35.5 billion yuan, medium-term and long-term loans increased by 428.5 billion yuan, bill financing increased by 246.6 billion yuan; and non-banking funds increased by Loans from financial institutions decreased by 94.5 billion yuan.

"In August, the medium-term and long-term loans of enterprises rose to 428.5 billion yuan, an increase of 86 billion yuan over the same period last year." Guo Yuwei, macro-analyst of Xingye Research, told Daily Economic News: "This change is related to LPR reform. From the perspective of the bill market interest rate, the fluctuation of the bill interest rate before August 20 reflects the weak demand for loans, but the bill interest rate began to rise after the LPR first quotation on August 20. This may indicate that the downward expectation of interest rates stimulates the medium and long-term financing demand of enterprises, and the supporting role of interest rate consolidation in the real economy begins to appear. Chen Ji, a senior researcher at the Finance Research Center of Bank of Communications, believes that the slight decline in credit growth is basically in line with expectations, but the decrease in short-term loans and the increase in long-term loans show that under the guidance of policy, the structure of credit investment has improved. The stock of social financing scale increased by 10.7% compared with the same period last year. The stock of social financing scale increased by 10.7% at the end of August to 216.01 trillion yuan, 10.7% compared with the same period last month. The increase of social financing scale was 1.98 trillion yuan, 37.6 billion yuan more than the same period last year.

The increase of social finance over the same period of last year is mainly due to the negative change of undiscovered bank acceptance bills from negative to positive. Meanwhile, the slight recovery of the growth rate of broad money M2 basically responds to the steady liquidity control target of the central bank for a period of time. It is expected that financial support to the real economy will be further strengthened in the future. From the stock point of view, the balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 146.82 trillion yuan, up 12.6% from the same period last year, while the balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 2.23 trillion yuan, down 10.3% from the same period last year. In addition, from an incremental point of view, RMB loans to the real economy increased by 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.5 billion yuan less than the same period of last year; foreign currency loans to the real economy decreased by 24.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.7 billion yuan over the same period of last year; in terms of structure, the balance of RMB loans to the real economy at the end of August accounted for the scale of social financing in the same period. The amount of foreign currency loans issued to the real economy accounted for 1% of the RMB balance, which was 0.3 percentage points lower than that of the previous year. Fan Ruofeng, a researcher at the International Finance Research Institute of the Bank of China, told Daily Economic News that financial support for entities is increasing in terms of the proportion of social finance sectors. From the point of view of loan structure, whether in household or enterprise sectors, the increase of medium-term and long-term loans is very obvious, especially for enterprises, the increase of medium-term and long-term loans is 428.5 billion yuan, an increase of 86 billion yuan over the same period last year. This is related to the central bank's emphasis that credit resources should be inclined to medium and long-term loans in manufacturing industry and be included in MPA assessment.