Looking at Future Market Trend from Current Coal Economic Operation

In the future, with the continuous strengthening of safety and environmental protection inspection by relevant state departments, the release of coal production capacity will inevitably be affected to a certain extent, and the continued expansion of the price gap will force coal prices in the port market to a certain extent. Before the northern heating season comes, coal prices will still show a weak steady-state trend.

In July, the production of industrial raw coal and crude oil above the scale accelerated, while the production of natural gas and electric power slowed down. From January to July, the electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 4.6% over the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped by 4.4 percentage points compared with the same period last year.

In July, the value added of industries above the national scale increased by 4.8% year on year. From January to July, the value-added of industries above the national scale increased by 5.8% compared with the same period last year.

July, China's crude coal output 320 million tons, an increase of 12.2%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points faster than June, a new three-year high, with an average daily output of 10.39 million tons, a decrease of 720,000 tons compared with June. From January to July, the output of raw coal was 2.09 billion tons, an increase of 4.3% over the same period last year.

Analysis shows that the persistent high temperature weather in summer this year has led to a substantial increase in residential electricity consumption and boosted both supply and marketing in the coal market. In order to ensure adequate coal supply during the "peak summer" period, some large coal enterprises increased the release of high-quality production capacity, making July's year-on-year growth rate hit a new high in nearly three years. In addition, this summer, coal demand has increased not only in power plants, but also in large steel plants. Since this year, driven by infrastructure construction, the daily output of crude steel in China has continuously reached a new high.

Coal imports rose sharply

In July, 32.89 million tons of coal were imported, an increase of 13.4% over the previous year, an increase of 5.79 million tons over June, the highest value in half a year; in January-July, 187.36 million tons of coal were imported, an increase of 7% over the previous year.

Analysis shows that, due to the sharp increase in production and import, the supply level is relatively adequate. In the past, coal was found everywhere in power plants during peak summer, but this year the market is relatively stable. Although the downstream demand has increased considerably, it can basically be met, and the market is relatively loose.

Coal price dropped slightly

As of August 2, the comprehensive trading price of Qinhuangdao 5500 cards coal was 577 yuan per ton, 511 yuan per ton for 5000 cards and 454 yuan per ton for 4500 cards, down 3 yuan, 2 yuan and 3 yuan respectively from June 28.

Analysis shows that the daily consumption of the six coastal power plants increased to over 800,000 tons in July under the influence of high temperature weather, and the downstream demand improved. However, under the substitution of hydropower, the high inventory of the downstream power plants has not been digested, and the demand can not be transferred to the upstream and middle reaches. At the same time, the coal output release is far higher than expected and the supply is sufficient. In this case, the price of pit mouth is weak and stable, and the spot price of port falls back.

Railway coal transportation increased by 9.8%

in July compared with the same period last year, with 365 million tons of railway freight transported across the country, an increase of 8.4% over the same period last year. In July, 210 million tons of coal were transported by railways nationwide, an increase of 6% over the same period last year, and 1.42 billion tons of coal were transported from January to July, an increase of 3% over the same period last year. At the same time, the coal transportation volume of Daqin Line was 37.29 million tons, down 4.02% from the same period last year. Compared with June, the volume of goods transported by Da-Qin Line was 35.82 million tons, down 7.78% from the same period last year, and 4 million tons from May, down 10.05%. The analysis shows that with the increase of coal transport capacity and port throughput of Wari Railway and Shuohuang Railway, and the advantages of distance between these two ports, with the gradual operation of Menghua Railway in the future, the space for the increase of coal transport capacity of Daqin Railway will be smaller and smaller.

In January-July, the profits of the coal mining and processing industry nationwide decreased by 3.8%

Compared with the same period last year. In January-July, the total profits of Industrial Enterprises above the national scale reached 3497.7 billion yuan, down by 1.7% compared with the same period last year. From January to July, mining industry realized a total profit of 335.44 billion yuan, an increase of 4.2% over the same period last year. Among them, the total profit of coal mining and washing industry was 166.9 billion yuan, down 3.8% year on year. The operating income of coal mining and washing industry reached 1369.1 billion yuan, an increase of 3.6% compared with the same period last year, while the operating cost of coal mining and washing industry reached 97.45 billion yuan, an increase of 5.9% compared with the same period last year.

Policies and Events

Six Departments, such as the National Development and Reform Commission, issued the Work Programme for Classified Disposal of Coal Mines under 300,000 tons/year.

The State Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the Ministry of Ecological Environment, the State Energy Administration and the State Administration of Coal Mine Safety recently studied and formulated the Work Program for Classified Disposal of Coal Mines under 300,000 tons/year. According to the requirements of strict law enforcement, closing a batch, implementing capacity replacement, withdrawing a batch, upgrading and upgrading a batch of coal mines. The coal mines below 300,000 tons per year are classified and disposed of. Through three years, the number of coal mines under 300,000 tons per year in China will be reduced to 800 by the end of 2021. Coal mines under 300,000 tons per year in North China and Northwest China (excluding South Xinjiang) will basically withdraw. In principle, the number of coal mines under 300,000 tons per year in other areas will be reduced by more than 50% compared with the end of 2018.

China Shenhua realized net profit of 24.243 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 5.5% over the previous year.

China Shenhua recently released its semi-annual report, which showed that the company's revenue in the first half of the year was 116.365 billion yuan, down 8.6% from the previous year, and achieved 52.6% of its annual operating target; net profit was 24.243 billion yuan, up 5.5% from the previous year. Shenhua China said that the main reason for the decline in business income during the period was the decline in coal sales and prices. In the first half of this year, the company achieved 145 million tons of commercial coal output, down 0.3% year on year, and achieved 50.1% of its annual operating target. Influenced by land expropriation, regional security consolidation and insufficient coal resources purchased from abroad, Shenhua achieved a coal sales volume of 217 million tons in the first half of the year, down 3.6% from the same period last year, and realized an average coal sales price of 420 CNY/ton, down 2.8% from the same period last year.