Prediction of coal price trend in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region

In the first three quarters of this year, due to the tight supply of coal market, the coal price in Inner Mongolia gradually returned to a reasonable range from a high level. In the fourth quarter, the coal market has sufficient supply and strong demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly upward. In the first three quarters, the average settlement price of power coal in the whole district was 215.94 CNY/ton, 3.12% higher than that in the first three quarters of 2018 (hereinafter referred to as the year-on-year). From January to September, the price of Inner Mongolia's power coal mine mouth showed a dynamic trend of stable medium and small amplitude wave in the early stage of rise and late stage. From January to may, due to the impact of the mine accident at the beginning of the year, the supply was tight, and the price rose month by month.

In May, the average mine mouth price of the whole area reached the peak in recent years, which was 222.60 CNY/ton, 5.90% higher than the beginning of the year, and 10.83% higher than the previous year. In June, with the gradual increase of coal production and supply, the price dropped to 214.22 CNY/ton. From July to September, the coal price kept a small fluctuation trend. In September, the average mine mouth price of power coal in the region was 215.55 CNY/ton, up 2.54% from the beginning of the year, up 2.06% year on year. In the first three quarters, the average purchase price of electric coal in the whole region was 206.22 CNY/ton, up 0.74% year-on-year; after being converted into standard coal, it was 402.51 CNY/ton, up 6.98% year-on-year. From January to September, the purchase price of electric coal in the whole region showed a stable, moderate and small fluctuation trend. In September, the average purchase price of electric coal in the whole region was 205.22 CNY/ton, down 3.01% from the beginning of the year, up 1.03% year-on-year; after conversion to standard coal, it was 409.68 CNY/ton, up 2.58% from the beginning of the year, up 8.72% year-on-year. Since this year, factors such as long-term coal cooperation system and staggered purchase of power plants have effectively avoided the ups and downs of coal prices, and the amplitude of coal prices has gradually narrowed.

In the fourth quarter, the northern region has gradually entered the heating period, with stronger demand for coal. At the same time, the coal supply has increased steadily and the power plant has staggered peak purchase. It is expected that the coal price in Inner Mongolia will maintain a slight upward trend in the fourth quarter. At present, the supply of Inner Mongolia high heat power coal (calorific value higher than 5000 kcal) is loose, and the supply of low heat power coal (calorific value lower than 4500 kcal) is relatively tight, so the price rise is mainly reflected in the low heat power coal. Market supply is stable. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in September, the national raw coal output was 320 million tons, an increase of 4.40% year on year; the daily average output was 10.8 million tons, an increase of 610000 tons month on month. From January to September, the output of raw coal reached 2.74 billion tons, up 4.50% year on year, 1.90 percentage points higher than that in the first half of the year. With the completion of safety inspection, the existing capacity will be released gradually to further increase production. Since October, the production of the coal mines that are shut down for maintenance will be resumed one after another. Under the background of continuous release of high-quality production capacity, the coal supply has been guaranteed.

Demand rose slightly. In September, the daily consumption of six major coastal power plants remained at a high level in recent years. Moreover, after October, the national temperature continued to drop, and the northern region gradually entered the heating period, and the demand for coal mining will increase. At the same time, according to the data from the National Bureau of statistics, in the second half of this year, the overall trend of manufacturing PMI rose steadily. In September, the purchasing manager index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry was 49.8%, 0.3 percentage points higher than that of last month, indicating that the stable and positive development trend of manufacturing industry has not changed. In the context of macroeconomic growth, it is expected that energy consumption will continue to maintain a slight upward trend in the fourth quarter.