The price focus of power coal in 2020 will be further explored

In 2020, the total experience of the power coal market is that the supply exceeds the demand. The trend of the power coal market is not optimistic, and the overall price focus will be further explored. At present, it may be the beginning of the market weakness. Next year, the market situation may be more severe. It is expected that the price of the power coal in the main production area will fall by 60-70 yuan. Chen Tianyu, manager of the power coal department of Fenwei energy price center, held on November 20, 2019, the power coal industry It was pointed out at the financial forum. Chen Tianyu further said that in the short-term market, the Spring Festival will be earlier next year, and some coal mines will stop production and have holidays near the end of the year, but at the same time, the downstream demand will gradually weaken and enter the state of de stocking. The supply and demand will remain weak around the end of the year, and the coal price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. The power coal industry financial forum is a concurrent event of the 2019 (seventh) international power coal resources and Market Summit Forum, CO sponsored by Sanli futures and China coal resources network. Chen Tianyu, manager of power coal department of Fenwei energy price center, made a keynote speech. At this forum, Chen Tianyu made a detailed analysis on the production, sales and storage situation of main power coal production areas in 2019 from three aspects: the price trend of main production areas, the supply and demand factors affecting the price change and the later market outlook. "Since 2019, the supply of movable coal has been generally loose, the growth of demand has slowed down and the overall price level has moved down.

In the first half of the year, output and supply contracted, and prices remained high as a whole; in the second half of the year, supply recovered, demand weakened, and coal prices showed a downward trend, accelerating the decline in October, "Chen said. He pointed out that the traditional seasonal price changes have weakened, the annual price trend is relatively flat, the price fluctuation range continues to narrow, and the frequency of change has accelerated. In addition, the influence of ports around Bohai Sea on the price of producing area is weakened, and the degree of concentration of producing area is increased. When it comes to the mine profit in the main production area, Chen Tianyu introduced that the average profit of high-quality mines in the "three West" area is more than 200 CNY/ton, and the average profit of the whole coal mine is about 160 yuan, which is in a high profit operation with high production enthusiasm. In the first half of the year, the situation of coal safety production is more severe. The restriction of coal pipe bill is the main factor restricting the release of production. It supports the high-level operation of coal price, and the coal mine profits are rich. In the second half of the year, with the gradual release of supply, the coal price is weak, and the profits are correspondingly declining. In response to the situation of power coal import in the fourth quarter, Chen Tianyu said, "the greater price advantage of imported coal, ensuring coal supply and diversified procurement strategy of domestic users are the driving forces for the rapid growth of imported coal. In the fourth quarter, coal import may be similar to last year, significantly lower than the third quarter, but it will still maintain year-on-year growth. ". According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on November 8, China imported 25.685 million tons of coal in October, an increase of 2.066 million tons or 11.29% year on year, and a decrease of 4.603 million tons or 15.20% month on month.

From January to October, the import volume totaled 276 million tons, up 9.6% year on year, close to the total import volume in 2018. For the later coal market, Chen Tianyu believes that both positive and negative factors coexist, and that the latest changes in the market need to be kept in mind. Among them, favorable factors: in terms of supply, in recent years, coal mine integration has been basically completed, with limited new production capacity; the concentration of resources in the main production area is relatively high, and when coal prices continue to fall and coal mines suffer losses, private mines will appropriately choose to reduce production and protect prices; near the end of the year, the coal mine production task is basically completed, and safety inspection will be carried out before the Spring Festival, and coal mine production may shrink. In terms of demand, the coastal high energy consuming enterprises will shift to the central and western regions, and the power consumption coal demand will shift to the inland; the trans regional UHV and external power will continue to increase, from coal transportation to power transportation, increasing the demand for pithead power plants. Negative factors: in terms of supply, coal production in the main production areas will resume in succession after the Spring Festival, and there is still room for growth in high-quality coal production; next year, without policy intervention, the import volume will remain high. In terms of transit, next year's railway capacity will be further relaxed. After the operation of Mongolia Hebei railway, Haoji railway and other railways is stable, the number of direct railway coal delivered to the coastal areas along the river and central China may be further increased. In terms of demand, clean energy in East China, Southeast China and other regions will continue to occupy the market share of traditional coal power; environmental protection pressure in coastal areas will continue to increase, coal limitation tasks will continue, and overall demand may shrink; power market reform will eliminate the coal power linkage mechanism from next year, and lower the grid price. In order to reduce costs and ensure profits, power plants may further pressure upstream production enterprises, and then compress coal Corporate profits.