Coking coal: stability at the end of the year is the general trend

Up to now, the annual order meeting of major mainstream coal enterprises has been coming to an end, among which the annual long-term price of coking coal for 20 years is mainly stable. Near the end of the year, steel plants and coking plants have the intention of winter storage, and the demand has slightly improved. In addition, at the end of the year, the security inspection of coal mines has increased, and the price of coking coal in some areas has slightly increased, but the stability is still the general trend. With the increase of rain, snow and fog, steel plants and coking plants have winter storage plans, and demand in some areas has improved. In terms of supply, affected by the frequent mine disasters in Shandong, Shanxi and Guizhou in November, the security inspection of coal mines increased at the end of the year, especially in Shanxi. In terms of price, affected by tight supply and improved demand in some areas, the price of high-quality coking coal in Luliang and Linfen, Shanxi Province, is firm. At present, the mining tax of low sulfur main coking coal in Luliang is about 1380 CNY/ton, and the mining tax of main coking coal in Anze, Linfen is 1400 CNY/ton. In Wuhai, affected by the improvement of demand, the price of medium high sulfur fat coal and low sulfur 1 / 3 coking coal in Wuhai area generally increased by 20 CNY/ton, and after the increase, the tax content of low sulfur 1 / 3 coking coal was 1030 CNY/ton, and that of medium sulfur fat coal was 770 CNY/ton.

In addition, the market demand for imported coking coal has also improved slightly in the near future, among which the price of Imported Coking Coal in Rizhao Port has increased by 30 CNY/ton, and the current port delivery of low sulfur main coking coal includes about 1250 CNY/ton of tax. After the second round of increase in coke price or in the face of peaking, for the second round of increase in coke price of coking plant, steel plants mostly say that the problem of the second round of increase in coke price is not big, and the second round of increase in coke price is expected to be the last round of increase in coke spot price. There is no effective policy support in the market, and traders and steel mills generally say they are not optimistic about the third round. In terms of policy, although the document of Shandong coking's capacity reduction is very clear, the current actual implementation is not as expected, and the progress is slow, which has a limited role in boosting the later market. According to the requirements of the provincial government documents, 10 million tons of coking capacity will be removed before the end of December, but the current capacity is less than 3 million tons.

On December 5, 2019, Shandong Jining Shengfa coking phase II added 1.2 million tons of capacity and put into production. In the later stage, it is difficult to complete the elimination of 7 million tons of production capacity in less than 20 days. The stability of coking coal is still the general trend. Although the price of coking coal in some areas has a small increase at the end of the year, it can not fundamentally reverse the weakness of coking coal market. From now to the end of the year, the stability of coking coal market is the general trend. First of all, in terms of supply, although the intensity of coal mine security inspection in some areas has increased, the production of large coal mines is mostly in normal progress, and the supply is still relatively loose. In terms of demand, although there is the intention of winter storage, considering that the coke price is about to peak and decline in the later period, after the coking profit shrinks, coking coal price will still be tried to be depressed, which will also affect the demand for coking coal to a certain extent. From the perspective of downstream products, the inflection point of steel coke market demand in the later period is reduced, the downward pressure is gradually increased, the downstream products are weak, and the terminal raw material market will also have a negative impact.