Coal market under the uncertain price of Changxie

The latest development of coal market in China today, the coal consumption of power plants is increasing, and the power coal in the northern port continues to rise. The price of power coal in the northern port keeps stable and rising. The daily consumption of six coastal power plants has been running at a high level of more than 750000 tons for six consecutive days. Because the long-term cooperative price has not been determined in January, some power plants with low inventory began to purchase in the north, which helped the coal price rise under the support of shipping cost and port inventory decline. In terms of production area, the downstream demand of Yushen mining area in Northern Shaanxi is weaker than that in the early stage, with less ore hauling and hauling, slightly accumulated coal mine and coal yard inventory, and recently flat price falls and mutual occurrence; the fluctuation of coal market in Jinmeng area is relatively small, the production and sales of mining area are reduced, the market trade shipment is relatively low, and the coal price is mainly stable, so it is still necessary to pay attention to the subsequent production and sales of coal mines. In terms of ports, the recent market trading is acceptable.

At the end of the year, the negotiation atmosphere between the supplier and the demander is good. In addition, some high-quality spot goods are scarce. The main quotation is up 1-2 CNY/ton every day, and the transaction is stable. Now, the main quotation of 5500 kcal power coal is 547-552 CNY/ton, and the quotation of 5000 kcal is 486-491 CNY/ton. As of the 24th, the total inventory of the three ports around Bohai Sea is 18.384 (- 0.8) million tons, including 5.305 million tons in Qinhuangdao port, 20 ships in Anchorage, 29 ships in advance; 7.377 million tons in Caofeidian port, 11 ships in Anchorage, 19 ships in advance; 5.72 million tons in Jingtang port, 21 ships in Anchorage, 12 ships in advance. On the downstream side, at present, the decline of port inventory in the middle and lower reaches has slowed down, and the inventory of six major electric power and key electric power has fluctuated in a narrow range. We continue to pay attention to the supply and demand situation of the upper and lower reaches and the change of market sentiment at the end of the year. On the 25th, the six power plants in the coastal area had an inventory of 16.0267 million tons, a daily consumption of 771000 tons and a usable life of 20.78 days. In terms of imported coal, at present, the market demand at home and abroad is weak, the quotation of foreign mines is relatively stable, and the pallets are relatively cold before and after Christmas.

However, the market demand in the southern region is limited, and the spot quotation has not changed much, and a new round of bidding for coastal power plants has been opened one after another. Now, the FOB price of 3800 kcal for Indonesian coal is $34-35, and that of 5500 kcal for Australian coal is $50.5-51.5. The supply of power coal is hard to hold. In the first ten days of December, there were two consecutive coal mine safety accidents. The State Administration of coal mine safety carried out a three-month centralized rectification of coal mine safety production nationwide. In addition, the office of the work safety committee of the State Council and the emergency management department held a video conference to deploy and carry out special supervision of work safety. 16 supervision teams will be dispatched to carry out special supervision in many provinces across the country, and the work safety supervision efforts will be further upgraded. In order to ensure the goal of safety production task, the production intention of coal mines in the main production area is affected, resulting in production reduction and even early production suspension and vacation. At the same time, due to the constraints of winter climate factors, the coal export is blocked, coupled with the port quotation hanging upside down, the willingness of traders to store goods is reduced, and the port coal inventory is rapidly consumed.

As of December 20, the total inventory of ports around the Bohai Sea in the North was 20.35 million tons, down more than 2 million tons on a month on month basis, down nearly 10%. The supply capacity of upstream and intermediate links declined, supporting the port quotation to stop the decline and recovery. Power demand growth is expected to slow. In November, the electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 2.1% on a month on month basis, and the demand for electricity was stable. Specifically, the electricity consumption of the primary industry and the tertiary industry declined on a month on month basis, with only the electricity consumption of the secondary industry increasing by 6.19% on a month on month basis. The electricity consumption of the secondary industry contributed 55.35% to the growth of electricity consumption of the whole society in November, and increased by 4 percentage points on a month on month basis. Obviously, the secondary industry is the main driving force to support the continuous growth of electricity consumption in the whole society. However, from the perspective of historical data, January to February is the year's low demand for electricity in the secondary industry, and the contribution rate to the overall growth of electricity consumption even turns from positive to negative. As a result, the overall demand for electricity will decline. What's more, the 2020 Lunar New Year is slightly ahead of the past two years, which means that in January, enterprises will gradually expand the scope of production and holiday, and reduce the pressure on electricity consumption.

According to the analysis of coal daily consumption data of six coastal power plants, the daily consumption of electric coal usually drops rapidly one week before the Spring Festival. It is expected that in the middle of January next year, the demand for electric coal will turn weak and the peak season will not be prosperous. In addition, due to the influence of El Nino, the temperature in most areas of China is slightly higher than that of the previous year. In the next 20 days, this situation will continue, and the demand for heating electricity in theory will be lower than that of last year. The purchase of power plant is more cautious. In spite of the recent obvious consumption of power plant inventory, as of December 23, the coal inventory of six coastal power plants has dropped to 15.85 million tons, down more than one million tons compared with the beginning of the month, but the replenishment of power plants is not active. On the one hand, in the context of electricity marketization, the willingness of power enterprises to control costs upstream has been enhanced.

In addition, although the current inventory level has consumption, it is far higher than the average level in recent years, and the available days of coal inventory can basically cover to the middle of January next year. On the other hand, the import restriction policy in January has been liberalized, and the coal that failed to pass the customs before will flow in rapidly, effectively supplementing the coal of southern power plant At the same time, it can reduce the supply pressure of northern port. In addition, the long-term cooperation quotation is stable, the power plant mainly implements the long-term cooperation contract, and the demand for market coal is limited. On the whole, the market coal price lacks the power to continue to rise.