EIA: global energy consumption will increase by nearly 50% by 2050

According to foreign media on January 4, the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) forecasts that global energy consumption will increase by nearly 50% between 2018 and 2050 in its latest published reference case of International Energy Outlook 2019. Most of this growth comes from non OECD countries and is concentrated in regions where strong economic growth drives demand, particularly in Asia. The industrial sector, including refining, mining, manufacturing, agriculture and construction, accounts for the largest share of energy consumption in all end-use sectors, accounting for more than half of end-use energy consumption throughout the forecast period. From 2018 to 2050, with the increase of commodity consumption, energy use in the world's industrial sector increased by more than 30%. By 2050, global industrial energy consumption will reach about 315 quadrillion BTU. From 2018 to 2050, transportation energy consumption increased by nearly 40%. This growth was driven mainly by non OECD countries, which increased their transport energy consumption by nearly 80% between 2018 and 2050. Energy consumption for personal travel and freight transport is growing much faster in these countries than in many OECD countries. From 2018 to 2050, energy consumption in the construction industry, including residential and commercial buildings, increased by 65%, from 91 to 139 quadrillion BTU.

The increase of income, urbanization and electric power lead to the increase of energy demand. The increase in end use consumption led to a 79% increase in power generation between 2018 and 2050. As the population and living standards of non OECD countries improve, the demand for household appliances and personal equipment increases, so does the electricity consumption in the residential sector. With the addition of plug-in electric vehicles and the expansion of railway power consumption, the power consumption of the transportation sector is also increasing. With the rapid growth of power generation, renewable energy - including solar, wind and Hydropower - is the fastest growing energy between 2018 and 2050, surpassing oil and other liquids as the most used energy in reference cases. From 2018 to 2050, global renewable energy consumption increased by 3.1% per year, compared with 0.6% per year for oil and other liquid fuels, 0.4% for coal and 1.1% per year for natural gas. From 2018 to 2050, global natural gas consumption has increased by more than 40%. By 2050, global total natural gas consumption will reach nearly 200 quadrillion BTU. In addition to the natural gas used for power generation, natural gas consumption in the industrial sector is also increasing. Chemical and primary metal manufacturing, as well as oil and gas extraction, account for most of the growing industrial demand. From 2018 to 2050, the global consumption of liquid fuel has increased by more than 20%, and by 2050, the total consumption will reach 240 quadrillion BTU. During the forecast period, the demand of OECD countries remained relatively stable, but that of non OECD countries increased by about 45%.