Uncertainty still has green transformation -2023 World Energy Situation Prospective

In 2023, under the influence of various factors such as geopolitical conflict, climate change, and exchange rate fluctuations, global energy security uncertainty will still exist.

This energy crisis has continued since last year, which has caused some countries to have fuel shortage, corporate failure, and slower economic operations, which not only force relevant countries to adjust the energy policy, but also promotes profound changes in the international energy pattern.

Energy crisis caused a chain reaction

Since last year, the contradiction between global energy supply and demand has deteriorated sharply, international energy prices have fluctuated frequently, and market conditions are full of uncertainty.

"This is the first true global performance crisis in the true sense, and the breadth and complexity are unprecedented." The International Energy Agency recently released the "2022 World Energy Outlook" report.

As an important energy producer and exporter, Russia is pivotal in the global energy market. After the Ukrainian crisis was upgraded, the United States and the West issued severe sanctions against Russia, leading to chain reactions such as resistance, prices soaring in energy supply, soaring prices and high inflation.

Statistics released by the European Think Tank Brugar Research Institute recently showed that European power and natural gas wholesale prices have increased 15 times compared with 2021. If only government subsidies are only taken without other measures, it is not taken to respond. State subsidy costs may be as high as 1 trillion euros.

The crisis highlights the vulnerability of the international energy supply structure. Taking natural gas as an example, due to the sharp decrease in natural gas from Russia, the proportion of natural gas imports in Europe has increased significantly. However, European countries that are used to importing natural gas through pipelines do not have enough liquefied natural gas storage facilities.

Data show that before the Ukraine crisis was upgraded, 30%of the EU's oil, 45%natural gas, and 46%of coal came from Russia. The European Union wants to change this energy supply structure, which can not be achieved in the short term.

Energy prices soaring not only plagued Europe, but also caused a global chain reaction. LNG's natural gas prices have soared. Economy such as Japan and South Korea tried to save power while considering restarting nuclear power; Indian coal imports hit a record high; many energy relying on imported emerging economies and underdeveloped economies had to compete at high prices with developed economies at a high price. Buy energy. This situation has also triggered a fierce reconstruction of the global energy market. The profit of US energy exporters has increased, and high natural gas reserves such as North Africa are also trying to increase exports.

The European energy crisis and its chain response exacerbated global commodity prices fluctuations. The inflation rate of many countries has soared, and economic difficulties in some countries have further deepened.

Energy price is short or keep high in the short term

Unless the geopolitical factors and global supply and demand relationships have changed, the future energy prices will remain high for a period of time, and the tension of energy supply will continue.

The Executive Officer of the International Energy Agency, Fitthel, previously stated that the EU may face about 27 billion cubic meters of natural gas gap in 2023, accounting for about 6.8%of the total demand for natural gas benchmarks in the EU. The International Energy Agency predicts that the global crude oil market supply may also be in the third quarter of 2023, which will drive the price of Brent crude oil futures to nearly $ 100 per barrel.

The "Outlook for the Commodity Market" recently released by the World Bank predicts that major energy prices such as global crude oil, natural gas and coal in 2023 will decline, but it will still be much higher than the average level of the past five years.

The "Energy Outlook for 2023" report released by the American S & P Global Commodity Inspection Company mentioned that although the price of large energy commodities such as natural gas, coal, and crude oil will decline in 2023, the tension in the European power market will not significantly improve. The structural reform of the power market will become an important agenda in 2023 in European countries.

In the next few years, Russian oil and gas production and export restrictions will lead to global natural gas supply continue to be in a shortage state. In addition, the willingness to invest in fossil energy investment caused by carbon peak carbon neutralization, and the increase in the proportion of renewable energy, the stability of global energy supply It will be significantly reduced, and even frequently occur in light supply.

High energy costs may promote many European countries energy -intensive enterprises to reduce production, suspend production or transfer production. Oliver Farke, head of the Industrial Economic Center of the Institute of Economic Research in Germany, said: "If energy prices remain high for a long time, some industries will leave Germany."

Energy transformation is difficult to relieve thirst

Many experts believe that the surge of energy prices will force Europe to accelerate energy transformation and "passive" introduce more green energy, but the energy transition is still difficult to fundamentally resolve the energy crisis.

In May 2022, the European Union announced that it would increase 21 billion euros in 5 years to support the accelerated development of green energy. The content of this plan includes promoting energy conservation, diversification of energy supply, and accelerated renewable energy development. This plan also proposed that the EU's energy efficiency targets in 2030 increased from 9%to 13%, and by 2030, the proportion of renewable energy in EU energy consumption increased from 40%to 45%.

According to the British "Economist", most countries will take measures in 2023 to increase investment in traditional fossil energy in the short term to ensure the safety of energy supply. At the same time, long -term measures are taken The development of renewable energy.

The "Renewable Energy" report released by the International Energy Agency recently predicts that being promoted by the energy crisis, the installation of renewable energy equipment in various countries has significantly accelerated. The global installation increase in the next 5 years is expected to approach twice the increase in the previous 5 years, of which photovoltaic Power generation and wind energy will contribute more than 90%of new power generation capabilities. Birore said that the current energy crisis may become a cleaner and safer historical turning point in the global energy system.

However, some experts believe that although energy prices have soared to a certain extent, they can accelerate the transition to renewable energy to a certain extent, but as far as the current energy crisis is concerned, the dependence on traditional energy may not increase in the short term. Far water cannot be resolved. "