The United Nations report: the world economy may improve this year

According to the report on the world economic situation and outlook 2020 (hereinafter referred to as "the report") released by the United Nations on January 16, if all kinds of risks are controlled, the world economic activities may slightly improve in 2020, and the growth rate is expected to reach 2.5%. The economic growth depends on the risk control report. Affected by the long-term trade dispute, the global economic growth rate dropped to 2.3% in 2019, the lowest level in a decade, and the global economic growth rate may reach 2.5% in 2020. However, if the trade situation is tense, the financial turmoil or the geopolitical tension is upgraded, the recovery process of the global economy may be derailed. In the case of economic downturn, global economic growth may slow down to 1.8% this year. According to the United Nations website, Liu Zhenmin, under secretary general for economic and social affairs of the United Nations, said at a press conference the same day that last year's economy fell to the lowest level in the past decade. There are many factors, one of which is serious trade friction, especially among major economies. The forecast of global economic growth of 2.5% in 2020 is based on the premise that all adverse factors can be overcome and the world situation will not deteriorate. The signing of the first stage trade cooperation agreement between China and the United States has sent a positive signal to the world.

Although global trade tensions have eased in some ways, the possibility of recurrence is still high, as many important issues behind trade disputes have not yet been resolved in depth. He said that in order to keep the global economy relatively stable in 2020, rather than continue to decline, we need to overcome many difficult factors, avoid the influence of major geopolitical factors, and strengthen cooperation among countries to maintain investment, trade and consumption. East Asia's economic growth is expected to be the fastest. Although the world economy may slightly improve, per capita income in one fifth of the countries will stagnate or decline. According to the report, given the continued uncertainty of policy, weak business confidence and weakening fiscal stimulus measures, the growth rate of US GDP in 2020 is expected to slow to 1.7% from 2.2% in 2019. In the EU, the development of manufacturing industry will continue to be hindered by the uncertainty of the global economy, but the steady growth of private consumption will offset this impact to some extent. In 2020, the growth rate of GDP in the EU is expected to rise slightly to 1.6% from 1.4% in 2019. In spite of many obstacles, East Asia will still be the region with the fastest growth in the world and the region with the largest contribution to global growth. Liu Zhenmin said that "China's economic growth is still maintaining a good momentum. All our institutions have the same overall view on China's economic evaluation and are confident in China's economic development prospects, because there is still a lot of" value-added "space in China. China's growth is essential for maintaining world economic growth.

Because for a long time in the past, China's contribution to world economic growth has been maintained at more than 30%, then the future world economic growth still needs to maintain the rapid and sustained growth of China, the world's second largest economic power. " However, the process of improving living standards in many countries and regions has stagnated. Over the past decade, Africa's per capita GDP has almost stagnated. At the same time, the number of people living in extreme poverty has increased in several countries in sub Saharan Africa and parts of Latin America and Western Asia. According to the report, if these areas are to make sustained progress in poverty reduction, they not only need to vigorously promote productivity, but also need to be firmly committed to addressing serious inequalities. The need for a more balanced policy mix the report calls for a more balanced policy mix to deal with downward pressure on the economy. If we rely too much on monetary policy, we will not only not be able to restore economic growth, but also pay a huge price, including increasing the risk of financial stability. Therefore, a more balanced policy mix can not only stimulate economic growth, but also promote social inclusion, gender equality and environmentally sustainable production. Liu Zhenmin also said at the press conference that many countries rely excessively on monetary policy.

Although loose monetary policy can be conducive to economic growth and financial stability in the short term, it will sow the seeds of future financial crisis, for example, the current negative yield and debt level rise. Monetary policy is not enough to direct money to productive industries that need investment. He believes that countries need to adopt more active fiscal, social and environmental policies to stimulate economic growth while striving for greater social inclusion, gender equality and sustainable production and consumption. In many developing countries, the eradication of poverty requires both vigorous economic growth and the resolution of serious inequalities, including in terms of income, education, health and opportunities. International policy coordination and cooperation are also very important. U.N. Secretary General Guterres also warned at the time of the report that the risk of adverse effects on world economic growth could cause serious long-term damage to development prospects. These risks may also lead to a further rise in inward looking policies when global cooperation is crucial. Sustainability and well-being cannot be ignored economic development is not just GDP growth. 2020 is the beginning of the last decade for the United Nations to achieve the 2030 sustainable development goals. However, the report points out that the continued weakness of the global economy has brought major obstacles to the achievement of the 2030 sustainable development goals, especially the goal of poverty eradication. At the same time, the widespread inequality and the deepening of the climate crisis have also led to increasing dissatisfaction in many parts of the world. In order to further explore this issue, the world economic forum, held in Davos, Switzerland, from January 21 to 24, took the theme of "uniting global forces to achieve sustainable development".

According to the United Nations report, the climate crisis, persistent serious inequality, growing food insecurity and undernutrition continue to affect the quality of life of people in many countries. Eliot Harris, chief economist and assistant secretary general for economic development of the United Nations, stressed: "policy makers should not only focus on promoting GDP growth, but also on enhancing the well-being of all aspects of society. Therefore, we must give priority to investment in sustainable development projects, promote education, develop renewable energy and build disaster resilient infrastructure. " "With growing discontent about the lack of inclusive growth, there are calls for change around the world," Harris said. We must pay more attention to the impact of policy measures on distribution and the environment. " Liu Zhenmin said frankly that according to the assessment made in this year's report, the prospect of achieving the poverty reduction goal on a global scale by 2030 is "non Cola view". He said that the United Nations estimates that if African countries want to achieve poverty reduction, they need to achieve an average annual growth rate of more than 8%. At present, no country has reached this level. Whether the poverty problems in Africa, South Asia, West Asia and other regions can be completely eliminated before 2030, there is still a big challenge, which needs the efforts of these countries and the help of the international community. But he believes that in the next decade, "we can change the current economic development through our efforts.". The report also includes a climate perspective, calling for reform of the energy structure to meet the growing global energy demand through renewable energy or low-carbon energy. Currently, the energy sector accounts for about three-quarters of global greenhouse gas emissions. If the per capita carbon emissions of developing countries rise to the level of developed economies, the global carbon emissions will increase by more than 250%, and the global goal is to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. The report points out that decisive action must be taken in the area of energy transformation. On the contrary, any delay may double the final cost. The transformation to a cleaner energy structure will not only bring multiple environmental and health benefits, but also create economic development opportunities for many countries.