Driven by some regions, the ethanol market is 'reaching a new high'

Affected by the tight supply in some regions, the domestic ethanol market has risen again. As of May 14th, the domestic ethanol market price was 5775 CNY/ton, a price increase of 9.74% from the same period last month and a price increase of 10.63% from the same period last year.

Analysis of influencing factors

Products: The domestic ethanol market in East China and Henan has a significant upward trend. The ethanol market in northern Jiangsu in eastern China is up, surrounding prices are rising, and enterprise prices are rising; the ethanol market in Henan is up and raw material prices are high, and enterprises are currently waiting for vehicles to increase; ethanol prices in Shandong are collating and running, and anhydrous prices of enterprises return to normal; Jilin in northeast China The corn ethanol market is stable, large factory orders are delivered, and inventories are low; raw material prices in Heilongjiang are high. At present, enterprises are unable to sell low-priced goods, and enterprise orders are shipped, and individual companies' quotations have been raised; There is no shortage of water in Guangdong, and the price is currently high; although Dongguan, Guangdong, has recently received foreign goods to Hong Kong, but the current supply of market traders is sufficient, which affects the Guangdong region. The Guangxi molasses ethanol market is waiting to be seen. Goods, individual stocks are not high, prices are high; absolute ethanol companies have low stocks, prices are strong; ethanol market in Anhui region is rising, affected by the price increase in East China, the company's quotation is raised.

Industrial chain: In terms of raw materials, corn: corn prices continue to fall. The temperature in most of the northeast region has rebounded, and the planting process has accelerated. Corn planting in many places is coming to an end. It is expected that the corn growing area in the production area will increase. At present, most of the domestic corn is controlled by the trade link, and the stock of surplus grain at the grassroots level has dropped significantly. We predict that the possibility that corn prices will generally remain stable and strong in the near future is still high. This judgment will not change for the time being. It is worth mentioning that more than half of the temporary storage corn is in the Heilongjiang area. Due to the new crown epidemic situation in Heilongjiang, the temporary storage auction may be delayed. Corn prices are expected to show a new trend, which is more likely to occur after late May.

Ethyl acetate: The domestic ethyl acetate market is light. Mainstream manufacturers are mainly selling at stable prices, but the downstream substantial demand is limited, and the digestion cycle is long, resulting in insufficient new orders in the market. However, the mainstream manufacturers have low inventory levels and no inventory pressure has been seen for the time being. Maintaining stable price offers mainly. The spot supply in the South China market is sufficient, and the downstream demand continues to be weak, leading to partial competition from the supply side, and the market is passively weak. The short-term domestic market of ethyl acetate in East China and North China is on the sidelines, and the market in South China is gradually weak.

Outlook forecast

Business analyst ethanol analysts predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market price will remain stable, large factory orders will be delivered, there will be fewer companies in stock, raw corn auctions will not be able to land, corn prices will continue to rise, ethanol production companies will produce high pressure, and companies will sell at low prices Export orders continue to be slightly slower than last month. At the current high prices, middlemen have a higher wait-and-see sentiment; recently, overseas sources have not yet arrived in Guangdong ports in southern China. Owners have a strong wait-and-see sentiment. It is expected that the short-term market will remain stable.