India's epidemic affects the global API supply pattern? Many listed companies responded
The epidemic in India may affect the global industrial structure.
According to data from the Indian Ministry of Health, as of 8 o'clock on April 25, local time, there were 3,49,691 confirmed cases in the past 24 hours, setting a new record for the highest number of new cases in a single day since the outbreak in India for 4 consecutive days, and also breaking a single country in the world in a single day. The highest record of new cases.
On April 26, affected by the above news, A-share API concept stocks set a daily limit. As of the close, the secondary market of listed companies such as Minova, Huahai Pharmaceutical, Xinhua Medical, Asia-Pacific Pharmaceuticals, and Weiming Pharmaceutical had daily limit. The research report issued by Chuancai Securities believes that as more and more countries begin to restrict entry and exit from India and stop dealings with India, some industries with a relatively high proportion of India will be affected. Among them, raw materials and generic drugs, agricultural pesticides, textiles and clothing and other fields currently have the possibility of import substitution in China.
In this regard, Tian Xinjie, a researcher at Senrui Investment, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily that the impact of the Indian epidemic from the last peak may not be as large as the current market upload. The main reason for the transfer of production capacity in China is CXO. In addition, there may be some materials related to the export of the epidemic.
How much does the market affect?
In 2020, when the global new crown epidemic broke out, the "World Pharmaceutical Factory" India once restricted the export of 26 kinds of APIs, which aroused global concern about the shortage of API supplies. In recent days, India's epidemic has changed drastically, and the changes in the market structure triggered by it have once again become the focus.
Yang Yong, general manager of Yunxi Fund, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily that if the outbreak in India causes companies to stop production, the sub-sectors that may benefit are: APIs, some devices, new crown vaccines, new crown testing, and CXO. First of all, among the top 20 US generic drug prescriptions in 2018, 9 are Indian companies. If production is discontinued, these related companies are highly likely to benefit. Then there are companies related to the new crown. Chinese companies may receive a large number of orders for the demand for the new crown, which has high performance flexibility. Finally, India is also the main undertaking of CXO, a global innovative pharmaceutical company. If the undertaking capacity declines, the probability of domestic CXO companies benefiting is higher.
According to the research report issued by Chuancai Securities, both China and India are major suppliers of raw materials, and there is the possibility of order transfer. At present, China’s bulk drug supply accounts for 9% of the world’s total and India’s 12%. From a structural point of view, China’s current bulk bulk drug exports account for a relatively large portion of the industry, occupying the upper reaches of the industrial chain, mainly supplying 68% of the bulk raw materials in the Indian market. Medicine, India is dominated by specialty APIs, occupying a mid-stream position in the industry chain. From the product point of view, Indian raw materials medicines are mainly anti-infection, cardiovascular, central nervous, and respiratory fields, of which anti-infection and cardiovascular accounted for more than 50%. At present, the country has a certain accumulation in related fields, and the production capacity is relatively sufficient. Under the situation that the production capacity of raw materials in India is suppressed, it is expected that more orders will be transferred to the country, and related domestic raw materials companies are expected to benefit.
Many pharmaceutical companies responded
On April 26, a number of listed companies responded to investors’ questions.
In response to investors’ questions, Kyodo Pharmaceuticals stated that the Indian epidemic has not yet had a major impact on the company’s business in India.
In response to investor questions, Lifang Pharmaceutical stated that APIs are an important part of the company's "one body and two wings" development, and are the basis for drug quality control, cost control and innovative drug development. One of the company's fundraising projects is to strengthen the construction of raw materials. The company will strive to expand the external sales of raw materials under the premise of ensuring the self-sufficiency of raw materials.
In response to investor questions, Di Rui Medical stated that Di Rui Medical has entered the Indian market for more than ten years. From the beginning of sales of urinalysis products, to now a variety of biochemical and immunological products on sale, the main products currently promoted mainly include the new crown detection category. (Self-produced and agency) and immunoassays. In the first quarter, the company won more than 150 bids for biochemical equipment. The company will continue to pay attention to the Indian market, adjust marketing strategies, and accelerate the company's introduction of new products. There is uncertainty about the company's performance. Sex.
According to Kaipu Bio, as of now, the company's new crown nucleic acid detection reagents and supporting equipment, nucleic acid extraction consumables have been partially exported to Brazil, Mexico, Peru, Colombia, Italy, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Ethiopia and other countries and regions, but have not been sold to India and United States.
COVID-19 vaccine market prospects attract attention
In the current situation that there is no specific medicine for the new crown epidemic, vaccination has become the key to building an immune barrier to the new crown virus.
According to media reports, as of April 24, the global number of new crown vaccination doses exceeded 1 billion. As of April 23, my country has reported more than 200 million doses of new crown vaccine. According to the national new crown epidemic prevention and control strategy and related work deployment, as of the end of June, 560 million people will be immunized, reaching a 40% vaccination rate.
It is understood that there are currently five domestic companies selling new crown vaccines. On April 1 this year, the Hungarian National Drug Approval and Regulatory Agency officially issued the EU GMP certificate for the new crown inactivated vaccine to the Beijing Institute of Biological Products of Sinopharm Group. This is the first vaccine product in China's history that has been approved for use in the European Union and has been GMP certified. It is a new step for China's new crown vaccine to become a global public product.
With the recurrence of the new crown epidemic in India, the new crown vaccine concept stocks have also returned to strength. On April 26, Cansino, Watson Biotech and other companies rose more than 5%.
Yang Yong, general manager of Yunxi Fund, told reporters: "According to the 75% protection effect of the new crown vaccine, the vaccination rate can reach 80% to achieve all immunization. The current purchase price of the new crown vaccine is about 160-180 yuan/person, 1.4 billion people. , 80% vaccination rate corresponds to approximately 1.1 billion people inoculated, and the corresponding vaccine procurement cost is approximately 176 billion-198 billion yuan. In developed countries, 80% vaccination rate is taken, assuming the unit price is about 30 US dollars per person, and overseas developed The national market is expected to reach US$240 billion; the overseas developing country market, with an 80% vaccination rate, assuming a single price of about US$15, the overseas developing country market is expected to reach US$350 billion."
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