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The whey powder market is falling freely, and the domestic and foreign prices are obviously upside down

Echemi 2021-04-29

In recent days, the foreign market of soybean meal has increased the spot market, while the whey powder market has gone the other way. The European and American foreign markets have continued to rise, but the domestic market prices have been falling. Currently, low-protein whey powder in some regions is quoted at 7600-8200 yuan/ton. The price of the external disk is obviously upside down with the price of more than one thousand dollars per ton. They are all protein raw materials. Why is the gap so big? Because of the oversupply in the market, traders are selling at a loss. In the first quarter of this year, the import volume of whey powder increased significantly year-on-year. The high callback bottomed down, and the short-term market was weak. However, high-end foreign traders are losing sales, which may affect subsequent imports. The live pig market is showing signs of improvement. As supply and demand tends to balance, the probability of a rebound in the whey powder market increases. Follow-up changes in domestic supply and demand and the development of non-pandemic epidemics are of concern.


U.S. whey market continues to rise


Recently, the price of whey powder in the central region of the United States continues to rise, and the lower limit of the range price remains unchanged. Some rural end users have some additional orders, and they said that they did not find any goods above $0.60. Some people also said that the price in the resale market has exceeded $0.70, and the supply is very tight. Market prices of high-protein mixtures continue to rise. According to reports, the price of whey protein isolate is close to about $5. As a result, the focus of production has shifted, and low-protein whey powder is very limited. Some manufacturers said that in the rest of the quarter, their goods were basically sold out. The price of feed-grade whey has risen despite the lack of overall market transactions. At present, the price of feed whey powder in the central region of the United States is in the range of 1146.4-1306.2 US dollars/ton.


From January to February 2021, my country's whey imports increase by 50.3% year-on-year


According to China Customs statistics, China imported 126,200 tons of whey in January-February 2021, an increase of 50.3% year-on-year. Imports amounted to US$156 million, an increase of 55.4% year-on-year. The average price was US$1,236/ton, an increase of 3.4% year-on-year. Among them, 48,700 tons were imported from the EU, accounting for 38.6%, a year-on-year increase of 42.4%, 46,900 tons from the United States, accounting for 37.2%, a year-on-year increase of 33.2%, and 12,100 tons from Belarus, accounting for 9.6%, a year-on-year increase of 70.3%. Imported 3,900 tons from Argentina, accounting for 3.1%, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%.


Domestic pig prices have sharpened and fluctuated


In March and April, affected by factors such as the non-pneumonia epidemic and weak consumption, the price of pigs fell endlessly, farmers panic selling, and the price of large pigs in some areas fell below 20 yuan/kg. Coupled with factors such as the epidemic situation, farmers have been cautious in replenishment, and the average piglet price of 15 kg per head has dropped from a high of 2,000 yuan to 1,200 yuan. After mid-April, the price of pigs rose and fell sharply. The current average market price is 23.16 yuan/kg. The pressure on breeding is high, which also affects the production and sales of feed, and the demand for raw materials is not good. Recently, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued the "African Swine Fever and Other Major Animal Diseases Regionalized Prevention and Control Work Plan (for Trial Implementation)", which will be implemented nationwide from May 1, 2021, which may curb the development of non-Pest epidemics and end consumption trends. The increase is conducive to the recovery of the live pig market.

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