Lithium Carbonate Prices Exceed 80,000! 4.32% Increase Sets New Record High

On November 11, 2024, the price of lithium carbonate futures rose rapidly and re-broke the threshold of 80,000 yuan/ton. As of the close of the day, the main LC2501 contract closed at 80,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.32%. At the same time, trading volume and open positions increased significantly, and the weighted lithium carbonate index increased by 60,300 lots during the day, hitting a record high.

Yu Shuo, an analyst at Chuang Yuan Futures, pointed out that the price of lithium carbonate futures exceeded the threshold of 80,000 yuan/ton due to the combined effect of a variety of favorable factors. On the one hand, the favorable macro policies have promoted the terminal consumption of power batteries to exceed expectations. On the other hand, the certainty of the US election results has led to the expected increase in tariffs, domestic battery manufacturers have increased their production schedules in order to seize export shares, coupled with the early arrival of the Spring Festival next year, enterprises are preparing for inventory in advance, and the demand side has maintained a strong momentum.

According to the data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in October this year, China's power battery loading capacity reached 59.2GWh, an increase of 8.6% from the previous month and an increase of 51.0% year-on-year. From January to October cumulative point of view, China's power battery load reached 405.8GWh, an increase of 37.6%.

In addition, with the implementation of the old for new policy, and the year-end sprint of automobile manufacturers, the heat of automobile consumption continued to rise in October, driving the battery load to a record high in a single month. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in October reached 1.463 million and 1.43 million, up 48% and 49.6% year-on-year, respectively, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 46.8% of the total auto sales.

Liu Qiyue, an analyst at Industrial Futures, said yesterday's strong rise in lithium carbonate futures was mainly due to continued strong demand. From the downstream production schedule and procurement, the overall performance has exceeded market expectations, the inflection point of cell production has not yet appeared, and the lithium salt procurement scale has not declined on a large scale.

From the supply side, the current supply of lithium carbonate is relatively loose, and the marginal increase in supply is gradually slowing down. Relevant data show that in October 2024, domestic lithium carbonate production was 5900 tons, down 3.6% from the previous month. It is expected that domestic lithium carbonate production in November will be 58,900 tons, down 0.1% from the previous month. But in the short term, the production basically remained stable, as of November 8, the sample of lithium carbonate production of 13,500 tons, a weekly increase of 4.33%.