Improvement in Supply and Demand Leads to a Slight Increase in the Natural Rubber Market

August 11th news

According to the commodity market analysis system, the spot market for natural rubber in China has seen a slight upward trend recently (from August 1st to August 11th). As of August 11th, the spot price of natural rubber in the Chinese market was around 14,816 CNY/ton, an increase of 2.48% from 14,458 CNY/ton on August 1st. On one hand, the stable operation of downstream tire manufacturing has provided steady demand support for natural rubber; on the other hand, the firm prices of natural rubber raw materials have continued to provide cost support. Additionally, the slight decrease in port inventory in China has improved market sentiment, driving the price of natural rubber to fluctuate and rise. As of August 11th, the mainstream prices for 2024 Guangken, Baodao, and Haibao whole milk rubber in the Qingdao area were between 14,700 and 14,950 CNY/ton.

As of August 11, the price of Thai rubber was 54.00 Thai baht per kilogram, unchanged from the beginning of the month. On one hand, localized heavy rainfall and wind warnings in Thailand during early August and mid-August have hindered natural rubber (TSR) tapping activities. On the other hand, China's tapping suspension period combined with unstable yields from Vietnam's aging natural rubber plantations provide short-term support for raw natural rubber prices.

Recently (August 1–August 11), natural rubber inventories slightly decreased, improving market sentiment. As of August 10, 2025, the total inventory volume of bonded and general trade natural rubber in Qingdao reached 619,900 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons compared to the previous period, representing a decline of 1.89%.

Recent downstream tire production has been generally stable, supporting the natural rubber market. As of August 8, the semi-steel tire production rate of Chinese tire companies increased slightly to around 72%; in Shandong, the all-steel tire production rate of tire companies increased slightly to about 63%.

Future market forecast: Currently, high prices of imported raw materials in China and stable operating rates of downstream tire manufacturers both support the natural rubber market. A slight decrease in port inventory of natural rubber creates expectations for a certain recovery in the market. Overall, with the arrival of peak season, it is expected that the natural rubber market will fluctuate and gradually rise in the later period.