In August, the urea market in China showed a weak downward trend

I. Price Trends

According to the commodity market analysis system, as of August 28, the reference average price of urea in the Chinese market was 1,717 CNY/ton, a decrease of 5.24% from the reference average price of 1,812 CNY/ton on August 1.

II. Market Analysis

Supply and Demand Situation

This month, the urea market in China showed a weak downward trend. In the early part of the month, urea prices in China mainly declined. The futures market for urea saw a drop in prices, and the spot market followed, showing a weakening trend. Urea supply was ample, but demand was relatively weak. Mid-month, urea prices in China experienced a slight increase. Market inventories remained high, with an upward trend in the futures market. In the latter part of the month, urea prices in China fell rapidly. The futures market performed poorly, and the demand for urea in autumn agriculture entered a low season. The trading atmosphere in the urea market became quieter, with downstream buyers making only limited purchases, and no significant improvement in demand.

Market Conditions

As of August 28, urea market prices in Shandong region are around 1680-1720 CNY/ton, in Hebei region around 1690-1730 CNY/ton, in Henan region around 1660-1720 CNY/ton, and in Liaoning region around 1740 CNY/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from June 2, 2024, to August 18, 2025, the urea cycle in China showed a mix of increases and decreases. In August, the price of urea in China fell significantly, with the largest price decrease occurring in the week of August 4, at -1.1%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Urea analysts believe: After a recent continuous decline in the urea market, there has been a slight rebound. Currently, the supply in the urea market remains high, with agricultural demand weakening. The downstream is mainly focused on replenishing inventory based on rigid demand, and the purchasing enthusiasm is not high. It is expected that in the short term, the urea market prices in China will consolidate at a weak level.