In September, the price center of ethylene glycol shifted downward; in October, there's a high probability of a weak start followed by a strong performance

September 30 update

In September, the price center of ethylene glycol in China shifted downward.

In September, the price of ethylene glycol softened. According to the data, as of September 30, the average price of oil-based ethylene glycol in China was 4,385 CNY/ton, a decrease of 2.23% from the average price of 4,485 CNY/ton on September 1.

Regarding port-based ethylene glycol, the spot contracts for ethylene glycol at the port (starting from 500 tons) maintained stable basis levels as of September 30, 2025. For contracts expiring by October 10, intraday basis trading ranged from +64 to +67, with mainstream traders occasionally securing small spot supplies. By the close of trading, basis quotes for contracts expiring before September 30 were in the range of +68 to +69, while those for October contracts stood at +68 to +71.

The ex-factory price for a full truckload of Chinese coal-based polyester-grade ethylene glycol (bulk, tax-inclusive, self-pickup) is 3930-4150 CNY/ton.

In terms of overseas ethylene glycol, as of September 29, recent cargo negotiations were concluded around $506 per ton.

The main reasons for the decline in September ethylene glycol prices:

Increased Supply

In September, the Chinese ethylene glycol supply side showed significant changes, which had a major impact on its price. From July to August, multiple facilities, including Shenghong Refining and Shanxi Woneng, underwent concentrated maintenance or reduced production, leading to a contraction in supply and the depletion of port inventory, providing significant support for ethylene glycol prices. However, entering September, the overall operating rate in China saw a noticeable increase. The new 800,000-ton-per-year facility at Yulong Petrochemical successfully commissioned and produced qualified products, while the maintenance units at Shenghong Refining and Zhejiang Petrochemical were restarted, making the pressure from increased supply more evident. In the third quarter, the operating rates of all ethylene glycol production routes fully recovered. The coal-to-ethylene glycol operating load rose significantly from 58.95% in July to 66.60% in September, with the quarterly average increasing by 9.02% compared to the second quarter. Meanwhile, the oil-based route's operating rate also climbed from 64.11% in July to 74.62% in September, with the quarterly average rising by 5.39%. In September, the overall operating rate exceeded 71%, indicating that the Chinese ethylene glycol supply side entered a steady growth phase, leading to a marked increase in market supply pressure, which weakened the factors previously supporting the price and put pressure on the September ethylene glycol price.

Downstream high operating rates, but terminal demand remains weak

The demand side of ethylene glycol shows high operating rates but persistently weak demand, which has constrained the ethylene glycol prices in September. The downstream polyester industry has maintained a high operating rate above 87%, and the rigid demand should have provided some price support. Among them, the quarterly average operating rate of polyester filament reached a high of 91.33%, with minor fluctuations, strongly supporting the overall operating level; the quarterly operating rate of polyester staple fiber increased by 3.12% to 87.42%, mainly due to the increase in enterprise load and the commissioning of new facilities. However, the terminal weaving sector's order growth has been consistently weak, leading to low inventory replenishment willingness among polyester factories and traders, limiting market trading activity, and failing to provide an effective upward drive for ethylene glycol prices. Meanwhile, the operating rate of bottle-grade PET has seen the most significant decline, with a quarterly average of only 72.45%, down 9.38% quarter-over-quarter, mainly due to long-term maintenance or production switching of some facilities; the operating rate of fiber-grade PET also slightly decreased. The average quarterly operating rate of China's polyester industry was 86.98%, a slight decrease of 4.09 percentage points from the second quarter, indicating some seasonal slowdown pressure, but the monthly operating rates remained stable within the narrow range of 86.5% to 87.3%. Overall, the weak performance on the demand side has resulted in a lack of strong upward momentum for ethylene glycol prices in September.

The probability of ethylene glycol prices in October first weakening and then strengthening is high.

The overall port inventory of ethylene glycol remains relatively low, and currently, the pressure on spot supply is not significant. The recent price decline is mainly due to considerations of pre-holiday storage costs, with traders showing a weaker willingness to hold stocks and a weak long-term outlook, leading to a lackluster desire for downstream terminals to stockpile. During the National Day holiday, large shipments from Canada and Saudi Arabia will arrive in concentrated batches, and the planned arrivals at East China ports for next week total 228,000 tons, which is a relatively high volume. This is expected to lead to an increase in port inventory, which to some extent will suppress the ethylene glycol prices in the first half of October. After the weak expectations are priced in, ethylene glycol is expected to bottom out and rebound, making it highly likely that the ethylene glycol prices in October will weaken before strengthening[1].