Methanol Market Trends Weaken in China

November 14th, according to reports

According to the commodity market analysis system, from November 10 to 14 (as of 3:00 PM), the methanol market in East China's ports saw a decline in quotations from 2,058 CNY/ton to around 2,034 CNY/ton. The price fell by 1.17% during the period, down 10.16% month-over-month, and down 17.82% year-over-year. With high import supply, port methanol inventories continued to accumulate, exerting ongoing pressure on the market. The port methanol market mainly maintained a low-level fluctuation.

As of the close on November 14, the methanol futures closing price on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in China fell. The main contract of methanol futures 2601 opened at 2103 CNY/ton, with the highest price at 2107 CNY/ton and the lowest price at 2054 CNY/ton. It closed at 2055 CNY/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement, a price decrease of 2.47%. The trading volume was 1,169,485, the open interest was 1,516,796, and the daily increase in open interest was 133,965.

Methanol Spot and Futures Comparison Chart:

As of November 14, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions of China:

Cost Perspective: China's coal production continues to contract, while heating demand has been released earlier than expected, suggesting coal prices are likely to remain strong—providing robust cost support. Meanwhile, methanol costs are being positively influenced by favorable factors.

Coal/Steam Coal (Upstream Raw Material) - Methanol Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Demand Side: Olefin procurement demand remains supportive, but terminal-level demand remains weak and has yet to show any fundamental improvement, limiting incremental growth on the demand side. Most downstream products are still weighed down by factors influencing methanol demand, which continues to face bearish pressures.

Methanol-Acetic Acid (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Methanol-MTBE (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Supply side, Inner Mongolia BaiTai and BaiTai plant maintenance; Donghua Inner Mongolia, Zhongyuan Dahan, Xinxiang Zhongxin, Xindongheng, Ningxia Hening, Jiangsu Suopu, Inner Mongolia BaiTai, and Hubei Saning facilities have resumed operations. Currently, the number of planned maintenance and production reduction facilities for methanol is decreasing, while the number of resumed facilities is increasing, leading to an overall increase in market supply. The methanol supply side is influenced by bearish factors.

On the international markets, as of the close on November 13, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market settled at $321.5–322.5 per ton. Meanwhile, the FOB U.S. Gulf methanol market closed at 89.5–90.5 cents per gallon, while the FOB Rotterdam, Europe methanol market ended at €265.5–266.5 per ton.

Looking ahead, market supply pressures are expected to remain significant, with port inventories continuing to build. Although demand has shown a slight recovery, the overall oversupply situation is strengthening, keeping the market in a relatively weak position. Methanol analysts predict that China’s spot methanol market will likely continue to trend downward.