Market Trading Light Power Coal Price Stops Rising and Falls

Recently, electricity and coal consumption has entered the off-season, the buyer's bargaining power has been strengthened, and the seller's delivery speed has slowed down due to early cost considerations. In this cycle, the price of power coal has narrowed down, and in the latter period, it shows a downward trend.

The price of power coal rose steadily

On April 17, Qinhuangdao Coal Network released the latest data, which showed that the price index of power coal around Bohai Sea closed at 579 CNY/ton, the ring ratio was flat. Spot price is 631.3 CNY/ton, up 2.5 CNY/ton annually.

This cycle, the trading price range of power coal specifications in Bohai harbor has steadily increased, with an increase of about 5 CNY/ton. Among them, the price of Qinhuangdao Port 4500 calorific coal is 465-475 CNY/ton, 5000 calorific coal is 515-525 CNY/ton, 5500 calorific coal is 575-585 CNY/ton, and 5800 calorific coal is 615-625 CNY/ton, which is the same as the previous period. In the part of research and development of Qinhuangdao Coal Network, it is concluded that after a short rise in the comprehensive coal price in the Bohai Rim, the following negative factors once again restrict the rise of spot coal price:

1. The resumption of production is steadily advancing, and the supplementary effect of external coal is higher than expected. Despite the successive environmental protection and safety inspections, the process of re-production of the origin is still steadily advancing. At the same time, the impact of import coal restriction policy on import volume is lower than expected. Import coal still has a complementary role in the domestic trade market, and the supply of domestic coal is relatively loose.

2. The inventory of power plants is high and the demand in off-season is obvious. Although the inventory level of coastal power plants of the six major power groups is in the downward channel, the absolute inventory level is still higher than that of the same period of the previous year, and most power enterprises enter the unit maintenance state in mid-late April. In addition, the substitution effect of clean energy on thermal power is gradually strengthened. Short-term downstream northward listing market purchasing willingness is low, and the release of coal demand is insufficient.

3. Transportation barriers have been weakened and the inventory of northern ports has been repaired upwards. After the sixth day of maintenance of Daqin Line, the impact of power supply failure was basically eliminated. The transportation volume of Daqin Line increased to about 1.05 million tons, the inventory of northern ports was gradually repaired, and the coal structure was optimized. The data of Qinhuangdao Coal Network showed that the inventory of northern ports (Qin, Tang and Cang) was stable at about 21.3 million tons, and the supply of goods was sufficient to reduce the space for coal price to rise.

Generally speaking, the issuance of coal pipe tickets is limited, coupled with the unexpected resumption of coal production in the early stage, the overall supply of coal in the production area is not high, especially in the high calorific value power coal area. Although the downstream electricity and coal consumption has gradually entered the off-season, the "dual control" of energy in some regions still exists. In addition, cement, building materials and other industries have high demand for coal, and high-quality coal resources in ports are relatively tight, which restricts the downward space of coal prices. It is expected that the port coal price will still be the following actors in the short term, but the decline is limited. The Baltic Dry Bulk Price Index (BDI) continued to rise in this cycle (April 11-April 17, 2019). On April 17, BDI closed at 767 points, up 33 points, or 4.50%, from the same period last week. Molecular index: The Baltic Cape Ship Freight Index rose 35 points to 463 points, or 8.18%, over the same period last week. Average daily profit for Cape vessels increased by $323 to $6209. The Baltic Panamanian Ship Freight Index rose 73 points to 1 147 points, or 6.80%, over the same period last week. The average daily profit of Panamanian ships increased by $584 to $9172. Among the smaller vessels, the price index of super-portable vessels rose by 8 to 726 points, or 1.11%, compared with the same period last week. The average daily profit of super-portable vessels increased by $87 to $8122. In terms of domestic trade and shipping, the Ocean Coal Freight Index (OCFI) issued by Qinhuangdao Coal Maritime Trade Market shows that during the reporting period (April 10, 2019 to April 16, 2019), the domestic marine coal freight index has decreased and then increased. The freight index closed at 750.4 on April 16, 2019, down 19.87 points, or 2.58%, compared with April 9. Specifically, compared with April 9, 2009, the average coal tariff of 50,000-60,000-ton ships on the Qinhuangdao-Guangzhou route decreased by 0.1 CNY/ton to 34.1 CNY/ton on April 16, 2019; the average coal tariff of 40,000-50,000-ton ships on the Qinhuangdao-Shanghai route decreased by 6 CNY/ton to 28.1 CNY/ton on the Qinhuangdao-Shanghai route; and the average coal tariff of 40,000-50,000-ton ships on the Qinhuangdao-Jiangyin route decreased by 3.7 CNY/ton to 28.7 CNY/ton on the Qinhuangdao-Jiangyin route. Yuan / ton. From Qinhuangdao Coal Network, we know that the cooling of coastal coal market and insufficient pallets and inquiries have increased the waiting time of ships and loosened the mentality of shipowners, which has led to the continuous downward trend of domestic marine coal tariffs. Later, with the increase of non-coal pallets, some transport capacity diversion will be attracted. There are fewer coal ships in due time, and the shipowner's price mentality will be strengthened, which will drive the domestic marine coal tariff to stop falling and rise again.