Predicting price increase of power coal will be limited

Last week, the domestic power coal market continued its downward trend. The prices of some coal mines in Shanxi, Shanxi and Inner Mongolia regions have been lowered by 10-20 CNY/ton since last Friday. On the one hand, the price has been lowered because of rainwater weather and the obstruction of coal transportation, which has slowed down the enthusiasm of customers in purchasing and impeded the sales of coal mines; on the other hand, due to the staggered peak production and production restriction of downstream enterprises such as cement, steel and coking in many northern regions. The demand for coal in the producing area is weakening; secondly, influenced by the downward price of coal in the northern port, the sales pressure of coal mines with water as the main part is higher, and the price pressure is downward. The price decline of power coal in northern ports has narrowed down, and some traders' quotations have begun to rise slightly. The mainstream price of Q5500 and Q5000 coal is 595 CNY/ton and 515 CNY/ton respectively. With the end of the Meiyu weather and the high temperature mode in the south, the daily consumption of the six power plants along the coast has exceeded 750,000 tons, and the inventory has dropped to less than 23 days. With the high temperature weather continuing in the later period, the daily consumption of the power plants will continue to rise, which will form a certain price support for the coastal coal market, but considering that the power plants are in the process of de-stocking. At this stage, price increases are expected to be limited.

Last week, the national coking coal market began to stop falling and stabilize, and coking coal prices rose slightly in some areas. With the gradual improvement of coke market, coking plants in some areas have increased their efforts to replenish high-quality coking coal. Affected by this, the price of high-quality coking coal in Linfen, Changzhi, Shanxi Province, has started to rise slightly, ranging from 20 to 40 CNY/ton. After that, the output tax of high-quality main coking coal in Anze, Linfen, is about 1550 CNY/ton. Unlike the performance of high-quality coking coal in the above-mentioned areas, the coking coal blending market, after a sharp drop in prices at the end of June and the beginning of July, has basically shown a steady state. Later, with the gradual improvement of the downstream coke market, the coking profit situation will gradually improve, the coking plant will continue to crack down on coking coal in the latter stage of the strength will be weakened, the coking coal market will gradually stabilize, but the overall rebound conditions are not yet available.

The overall trend of domestic anthracite market was weak last week. Since the beginning of this month, some coal mines in Shanxi have reduced the price of smokeless lump and end coal by 10-90 CNY/ton, but the shipment situation of coal enterprises has not improved significantly after the price reduction. As for anthracite lump coal, industrial demand is not hot at present, chemical enterprises are still mainly purchasing on demand, and users'demand for chemical coal is difficult to have growth point in the short term. Shanxi, Henan and other regions are mainly large mine owners and suppliers, and the current shipment is relatively stable, but some local mines have obvious pressure on shipment, and continue to implement the relevant volume and price concessions. Policy. As for final coal, metallurgical and electric power industries are not very enthusiastic at this stage. Some coal mines in Shanxi, Henan and other regions reflect that there are certain stocks in the mine at this stage. On the whole, at the end of July, most of the domestic anthracite mines produced normally, while the demand of downstream users was not strong, the overall supply and demand of anthracite was relatively loose, and the smokeless market continued to develop weakly. If there is no obvious improvement in downstream demand in the near future, it is not excluded that coal enterprises in some areas may continue to call back the prices of anthracite blocks and end coal.

Last week, the domestic coal injection market continued a weak steady-state trend, and coal prices continued to fall in some areas, but the range of price reduction was narrowed. Following a 50 CNY/ton reduction in the market price of coal injection in Yangquan, Shanxi, this week, the mainstream price of anthracite coal injection in Yangquan, Shanxi, Henan and Hebei has been lowered by 50 CNY/ton. As of today, the mainstream market of coal injection in Shanxi, Henan and Hebei has dropped by 2-3 rounds, but after the price reduction, the market prices of coal and large mines have fallen by 2-3 rounds. There is still a certain price difference, and due to the relatively strict implementation of production restrictions in Tangshan Steel Works and other factors, the user's demand for raw coal procurement is not high, and the supply of injected coal in coal mines tends to be relaxed. Later, considering the recent coke price rise and fall, the price of injected coal in some areas has fallen by 20-80 CNY/ton. There may be limited downward space for injected coal market. However, for the specific trend of injected coal in the later period, we should continue to pay attention to the variation of blast furnace start-up rate in Tangshan steel plant.