Energy Planning in the 14th Five-Year Plan Needs Two Hands

Over the past five years, China's energy consumption structure has been significantly optimized, the quality of energy supply has been greatly improved, the achievements of energy science and technology innovation have been fruitful, and the energy system has undergone profound changes. Over the past five years, the average annual growth rate of total energy consumption in China has been 2.2%, and the energy consumption per unit GDP has decreased by 20.3%. Among them, the proportion of coal consumption decreased by 8.4 percentage points; the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption increased to 14.3%, the proportion of natural gas consumption reached 7.8%, and the proportion of electricity consumption in terminal energy consumption increased to 25.5%. In the forthcoming 14th Five-Year Plan period, compared with the 13th Five-Year Plan, what adjustments will be made in China's energy planning?

14th Five-Year Plan period (2021?2025), the proportion of fossil energy in primary energy structure will be about 80% in the world and China, and coal will account for about 55% in China's primary energy structure. Therefore, in formulating the energy development plan for the 14th Five-Year Plan, we should pay attention to two aspects: on the one hand, attention should not be diverted to the clean and efficient use of fossil energy, especially coal; on the other hand, non-fossil energy should be the main body of increment in this period to ensure that by 2030, non-fossil energy will account for the proportion of primary energy consumption. Up to 20%. To this end, we should implement the plan of "promoting clean coal utilization and speeding up the solution to the problems of wind, light and Hydropower absorption", and promote the clean and efficient development and utilization of coal as the foothold and primary task of energy transformation and development. At the same time, the proportion of renewable energy such as water, wind, solar and biomass energy will be increased to develop nuclear power safely and efficiently.

Considering the strategy of energy revolution, building a "clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient" energy system will become a long-term goal, and the 14th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development should be deployed accordingly. Clean means to focus on fossil energy, especially the scientific development and clean utilization of coal, and to improve the concentration of coal use. Coal, which has achieved clean and efficient utilization, is also a clean energy source. Under the leadership of the National Development and Reform Commission, seven ministries and commissions, including the State Energy Administration, have included clean coal utilization and clean production in the "Guidance Catalogue for Green Industry (2019 edition)", which should also be reflected in the plan.

Low-carbon means that while increasing the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption, energy conservation, emission reduction and energy efficiency are the top priorities in the process of low-carbon in China. At the same time, the three principles of common area in the Paris Agreement should be upheld and safeguarded to ensure China's reasonable right to development. "Safety" includes energy supply, ecological environment, science, technology and economy, etc. Under the current situation of increasing dependence on foreign oil and gas and changing geopolitical situation in China, it is more important to treat coal-based fuels, such as coal-based oil, gas, alcohol, ether, and coal-based chemicals, such as olefins and aromatics, as partial substitutions for oil and natural gas, with a strategic perspective, which should be deployed and supported in the planning. "Efficiency" means that the efficiency of energy production, transformation and utilization should be improved. If China's energy utilization efficiency is raised to the world average level, it can reduce consumption of 1.33 billion tons of standard coal, thereby reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 3.46 billion tons, accounting for about one third of the total carbon emissions in 2018. At the power level, we should pay attention to the supporting role of energy technology revolution in building the target energy system. The essence of the energy technology revolution is the energy conversion revolution. Its goal is to effectively control and transform energy. Common key technologies can promote the transformation and upgrading of the energy industry; leading technology can improve the quality of demonstration projects; modern engineering technology can achieve large-scale and commercial demonstration projects; and subversive technology is the key to low-carbon energy transformation. All these should be reflected in the energy development plan of the 14th Five-Year Plan.

At the implementation level, the energy development plan of the 14th Five-Year Plan should closely integrate the energy revolution with the strategy of regional economic and social development, and give full play to the role of the energy revolution in promoting economic and social development and protecting the ecological environment. For example, the energy revolution promotes the coordinated development of regional economy, society and ecological environment, the coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the construction of Xiongan New Area, the innovative development of the Yangtze River Delta, the open development of the Pearl River Delta, the transformation and development of old industrial bases, the rise of the central region, the green development of energy-rich areas, and the shared development of the southwest region.