September CPI announces today: Increases or seven consecutive months

The National Bureau of Statistics will announce the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) on the 15th. Influenced by the rising prices of pork and other food products, the market generally expects CPI to rise year-on-year in September or to be in the "era 2" for the seventh consecutive month. Under the effect of rising pork prices, the CPI rose by 2.8% in August compared with the previous month, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics.

According to Wind information statistics, the average forecast value of CPI increase in September by 19 research institutions is 2.8% year-on-year. Among them, the maximum value of the forecast is 3%, and the minimum value is 2.5%. If the above average forecast is realized, the CPI increase will be the same as that in August, and it will be in the "two times" for the seventh consecutive month.

Some securities firms expect CPI growth to be flat or slightly lower in September than last month.

Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, analyzed that in September, egg and poultry prices continued to rise, and the third week's rise declined; vegetable prices gradually declined; pork prices continued to rise, and it is expected that food prices will continue to rise in September. In addition, there has been a slight increase in the price of refined oil, and non-food prices are expected to rise slightly to about 1% year-on-year. At the same time, the factor of tail warping in September will decrease to -0.1%, which is 0.7 percentage points lower than last month. Preliminary judgment of September CPI growth may be about 2.6-2.8% year-on-year, taking the median value of 2.7%, the increase slowed down slightly compared with last month. Lian Ping said. Some securities firms believe that CPI will increase slightly in September compared with the same period last year. CITIC believes that pork prices have rebounded significantly from a year earlier, and CPI growth is expected to rise slightly to about 2.9% from a year earlier. In recent months, pork price trend has attracted considerable attention. In September, pork price trend has become a hot topic of public discussion.

National Wholesale Market Price Information System for Agricultural Products showed that the average wholesale pork price in September continued to rise, but the weekly increase continued to narrow. Pork prices have stabilized. Yang Zhenhai, Director of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas, said recently that judging from the increasing production recovery provinces, the rising production of piglet feed and the rebounding sales of breeding pigs, the confidence of pig farmers in supplementary feeding began to recover.

"As the epidemic of swine fever in Africa enters a relatively stable period, various policies come into effect, and production enthusiasm is expected to further increase. By the end of this year, the production capacity of live pigs will reach a bottom and the supply of pork market is expected to gradually stabilize and recover." Yang Zhenhai pointed out.

According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas, from October 4 to October 10, pork prices rose slightly, the average prices of 19 vegetables dropped continuously, the prices of eggs continued to fall, and the average prices of five fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas maintained a downward trend. Cao Ping, a professor at the School of Economics, Peking University, told Zhongxin. com: "Influenced by pork and other factors, CPI is expected to increase between 2.8% and 2.9% year-on-year next month, not excluding the possibility of 3%. Over the whole year, there is little possibility of breaking through 3%.

"Pork prices in the fourth quarter will continue to be the main factor driving food prices and CPI increases, and bring the expected increase in beef, mutton, eggs and other food prices." Lianping believes that CPI food prices are expected to remain at a high level in the fourth quarter, while weak demand leads to lower non-food prices, and the polarization between the two will continue.