Coal consumption tends to be rational. Sustainable management is the key

2020 is the end of the 13th five year plan. According to the 13th five year plan for energy development, by 2020, China's total coal consumption will be controlled within 4.1 billion tons, and the proportion of coal consumption should be reduced to 58%. Recently, at the Sixth International Symposium on total coal consumption control and energy transformation in China, the reporter learned that in 2020, China's total coal consumption and the proportion of primary energy will reach 3.8 billion tons and 55.8% respectively, which is expected to exceed the mandatory target in the 13th five year plan for energy development. In the future, more scientific and efficient use of coal and development of clean energy are still the direction of transformation and development of coal enterprises. Coal consumption tends to be rational. According to China's coal consumption total control plan and policy research project team (hereinafter referred to as coal control research project team), China's coal consumption in 2019 will be the same as last year's, and the coal consumption in 2020 is expected to be 1% lower than that in 2019.

According to the data provided by the coal control research project team, in 2017 and 2018, China's coal consumption rebounded in two consecutive years compared with the previous years. 2020 is the last year of the 13th five year plan and the key year to implement the three-year action plan to win the blue sky defense war. The total coal consumption control will continue to increase. Yang Fuqiang, core member of coal control research project team and senior consultant, predicted that in 2020, the coal consumption in China's power industry will be 1.297 billion tons to 1.33 billion tons of standard coal. Modern coal chemical industry will become a new growth point of coal consumption, which is expected to reach 101 million tons of standard coal in 2020. In the first three quarters of 2019, GDP grew by 6.2% year-on-year. Chen Wenling, chief economist of China International Economic Exchange Center, said at the meeting: "facing the pressure of economic downturn, China should increase efforts to cultivate new generation of energy saving and emission reduction technology, information digital technology, biology and new materials and other emerging industries in the future, and vigorously promote the development of wind power, photovoltaic and other renewable energy."

In the future, the new economic growth point will drive the healthy and high-quality development of the economy. We should avoid the significant increase of coal consumption caused by increasing investment in infrastructure and stimulating the growth of high energy consuming industries. The research results of the coal control project team show that the coal consumption brought by the power growth has not increased significantly. Due to the adoption of good energy-saving measures in iron and steel enterprises, coal consumption has gradually decreased. In the future, the control of bulk coal is still the key point for the decrease of coal consumption. According to the actual investigation, the coal control research project puts forward that the goal of bulk coal treatment is to reduce the use of bulk coal by 200 million tons by 2020, including 110 million tons of reduction, 70 million tons of clean energy replacement and 20 million tons of clean and efficient utilization. It is necessary to ensure the sustainability of bulk coal treatment. In 2017, the consumption of coal decreased significantly because there were about 65 million tons of bulk coal reduction in 2017.

However, as the treatment enters the deep water area, the reduction is more difficult. The most difficult point is how to balance supply guarantee, emission minimization, affordable economic cost and optimal treatment effect. Academician Du Xiangwan, former vice president of Chinese Academy of engineering, pointed out that coal control is not only to control the total consumption of coal, but also to make better use of coal resources. He pointed out that the management of bulk coal should use alternative methods and adopt the policy of adjusting measures to local conditions. It should be a region which is rich in resources to use which. In order to achieve the goal of coal control in the 13th five year plan, Shandong Province, Shanxi Province and Henan Province have made great efforts and achieved remarkable results. Take Shandong Province as an example, in 2018, Shandong Province achieved the highest standards of coal consumption, energy consumption and carbon emission control indicators.

However, Zhou Yong, deputy director of Shandong Institute of science and technology development strategy, said: "from 2013 to 2016, Shandong's coal consumption actually increased by more than 7 million tons, which is equivalent to putting all the indicators to be completed in 2017. At present, Shandong Province is in the middle and late stage of urbanization and industrialization. According to normal demand, the growth of energy consumption demand should last until about 2040. But now the cycle of coal control and carbon reduction is greatly shortened, which is an unexpected result. " Xu Chongqing, director of the Institute of ecology, Shandong Academy of Sciences, put forward that Shandong Province should make efforts to control the total coal consumption from both sides of supply and demand, and promote the transformation of new and old energy in Shandong Province. In terms of coal supply, Shandong Province should pay attention to improving the quality of coal, realize efficient utilization and make full use of coal deep processing resources, and constantly improve the development and utilization of renewable energy.

In terms of social demand, Shandong Province should implement accurate statistics of coal consumption, establish a large platform for energy data, more scientifically control the scale of high energy consumption industries, and constantly strengthen terminal energy conservation. Shanxi Province is the first pilot area of comprehensive reform of energy revolution in China. The policy of coal consumption control is more strict and has achieved remarkable results in recent years. Yuan Jin, a professor at the school of environment and engineering, Taiyuan University of technology, pointed out that the coal control work in Shanxi Province should be based on the relevant documents of the provincial government, take innovative coal control measures such as strictly controlling the scale of new coal power, improving the efficiency of power utilization, eliminating backward production capacity, promoting clean energy substitution, and implementing ecological compensation mechanism to achieve the coal control goal of the 13th five year plan. Qian Fajun, director of the Institute of geography, Henan Academy of Sciences, suggested that in the future, Henan Province should continue to take atmospheric control as the starting point, improve the utilization efficiency of electric coal, expand the scale of foreign power into Henan, and actively exit excess or backward capacity of coking, chemical, smelting and other industries.