Bisphenol A Rebounded at A Low Level, and PC Was Partially Debugged. How Will it Develop in August?

Recently, the price of bisphenol A has risen in a narrow range at a low level. Although the overall start-up of the two downstreams has increased, the operating rate of epoxy resin is close to 50%, and the operating rate of PC is more than 60%. However, for bisphenol A, contract consumption or destocking are mainly maintained. A small amount of small orders just need to be purchased in the market, and bisphenol A is in stock Insufficient transactions, the focus of negotiation is difficult to improve.

Although the upstream phenol ketones fluctuated repeatedly, the cost of bisphenol A had little impact on the market. As the price drops to a low level, the willingness of stockholders to sell low gradually weakens, and the backlog of inventory in the previous period is gradually consumed, and there are few opportunities for low-priced replenishment in the market outlook, and the intention of middlemen to support the price gradually increases. However, the demand side has not improved significantly, and bisphenol A is in a dilemma. As of August 3, the mainstream quotation of bisphenol A in the East China market is between 11800-12000 CNY/ton, and the mainstream negotiation is maintained at 11800-11900 CNY/ton.

How did the overall situation of bisphenol A evolve in August? It is mainly analyzed from the following aspects:

Supply side: The estimated domestic production of bisphenol A in August is 194,000 tons, an increase of 9,400 tons or 5.09% from the 184,600 tons in July. Although the overall operating rate of bisphenol A is currently within 70%, and two sets of equipment are planned to be overhauled in mid-to-late August, Cangzhou Dahua's 200,000 tons/year bisphenol A has been put into trial operation at the end of July, and the product is expected to be released in August. In addition, the load of Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II and Pingmei Shenma Plant has gradually stabilized after the restart. Huizhou Zhongxin has recently put forward a restart plan, and the domestic supply will increase compared with July. In terms of imports, considering multiple factors, it is mainly to maintain the contract to get the goods. Imports are relatively stable. Therefore, the domestic supply of bisphenol A will increase slightly in August.

Demand side: The estimated overall demand for bisphenol A by downstream epoxy resin and PC in August is about 240,000 tons. At present, the start-up load of the downstream epoxy resin is close to 50%. In August, some units were put into operation and new units were put into operation. The overall start-up load of another downstream PC was slightly above 60%. In August, some units restarted or increased the load. The overall operating load will increase slightly. Although both downstreams are currently mainly consuming double A maintenance contracts, a small amount just needs to be purchased in the market, and spot trading is light, but the overall consumption of bisphenol A shows an increasing trend.

Profit: Since July, pure benzene has fluctuated frequently with crude oil, and upstream phenolic ketones have also fluctuated repeatedly due to cost and demand. The cost of bisphenol A has limited fluctuations. Taking into account the cost and gross profit, and the market price of bisphenol A has hit the low price resistance level, the willingness of bisphenol A holders to lower the price is not high.

In summary, the supply of bisphenol A in the market increased slightly in August, which hedged against the increase in downstream consumption, and the overall supply and demand changes were relatively stable. The upstream phenolic ketones rose and fell repeatedly, and it is expected that there will be little room for overall changes in August, and the cost pressure of bisphenol A will still be supported. Paying attention to the fluctuation of the market supply and demand news after the two domestic installations have been overhauled in the mid-to-late period, it is expected that the bisphenol A will have a high probability of oscillating in a narrow range in August.

At the beginning of the month, PC manufacturers lowered their factory offers by 300-600 yuan per ton. The mentality of downstream deposits to buy up and not to buy down, coupled with the influence of the traditional off-season, the overall bearish atmosphere of the market was strong. From the end to the middle of the year, the PC manufacturers' factory offers remained stable. Later, with the slight increase in the PC auction price of Zhejiang Petrochemical, some traders in the market were bullish. The imported materials and some high-priced brands still maintained a bearish rhythm.

In the latter half of the year, PC manufacturers' factory offers increased slightly, with an overall increase of 100-400 CNY/ton. However, in August, the US dollar offers were mostly lowered. The industry's bearish atmosphere for the market outlook is obvious. In addition, the market is in the traditional off-season, and downstream terminal factories are in demand. There is no major improvement, and the rhythm of receiving small orders just needs to continue, and the shipment of traders is still slow. Under the influence of multiple unfavorable factors, although there is a slight increase in the cost side, traders mostly adjust their offers according to the conditions of each brand. Some domestic materials have been affected by this and their offers have increased slightly. Downgrade to facilitate engagement.