The last chance of coal price rising this year

At the end of the year, the market coal price finally ushered in a long-standing rise; although it came a little late, it still came. The price of coal rose in late December, which is expected to rise 5-10 CNY/ton. At the beginning of January, with the influx of imported coal, the price of coal in the port market will stop rising and stabilize. During the Spring Festival, the price of coal will fall. As a result, there are only 10 good days left for domestic coal prices to rise. First of all, the port coal price has been in a state of decline after the National Day holiday, which has been stable for one and a half months after falling to 548-550 CNY/ton; driven by the surge of daily consumption of power plants and the transportation of coal storage in winter, supported by the drop of shipping cost and port inventory, the coal price rebounded in a reasonable way in the low valley. Secondly, the production of coal mines in the "three West" area has been cut down and shut down in succession, with coal mine accidents superimposed. The centralized safety control work carried out in the main production area has increased the number of coal mines shut down and shut down. Severe weather, such as heavy snow, has affected the short-distance reshipment of coal stations, resulting in a decrease in the supply and delivery of the production area. Thirdly, affected by the decrease of upstream shipment, the railway incoming was affected, while the shipment of Bohai port remained high, which led to the drop of port inventory and the shortage of some high-quality coal.

In this week, the inventory of northern port and jiangnei unloading port both declined, the market trading atmosphere began to pick up, the quotation of traders began to rise, and the actual transaction of high-quality coal rose 2 CNY/ton according to the index. Fourth, near the end of the year, in order to complete the annual task indicators, the production and operation of East China and South China have entered the final sprint stage, with increased industrial power load and coal demand. Near the two sections, some power plants with less coal storage and small site will increase the number of hauling. Fifth, due to the impact of rain and snow weather, the output of photovoltaic and wind power decreased; the water level in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River continued to fall, especially the main line of the Yangtze River has entered the dry season, resulting in the depletion of hydropower and the reduction of output. The arrival of the dry season not only promotes the thermal power in Central China to shoulder the heavy responsibilities, increase the coal consumption, and increase the number of "sea into the river"; moreover, affected by this, the purchased power in coastal areas also decreases, the load of local thermal power plants increases, and the coal consumption increases. Sixthly, although the imported coal still exists, the import of coastal areas is affected by factors such as the inability to pass customs in different places and the increase of policy risks. It is estimated that in December, China's imported coal is expected to be controlled at about 15 million tons, which has a pulling effect on the coastal coal market, and the users will correspondingly increase the domestic coal haulage volume. Once entering 2020, with a large number of customs clearance and loading and unloading of imported coal, the power plant inventory will be supplemented to a large extent; users will reduce the number of coal purchases in the northern port, which will cause the port market coal price to lose its support, and there will be a stop rise, and it will fall in mid January when the Spring Festival is approaching.