Where is the way to change the structure of energy consumption?

"In the next 10 years, clean energy will replace most of the thermal power generation and become the main power." Zhong Baoshen, chairman of Longji, told China Business Daily that the development of clean energy is the general trend, especially photovoltaic power generation. The reporter learned that at present, the proportion of clean energy in Yunnan, Qinghai and other provinces has become larger and larger, and several provinces have proposed that the consumption of clean energy will be 100% in the future. However, with the rise of clean energy, the development of thermal power enterprises does not seem to be smooth. In 2019, many thermal power enterprises transferred their power plants. In addition, according to the goal that the proportion of non fossil energy in the total energy consumption should be increased to about 20% by 2030, the structure of energy production and consumption is gradually adjusting. In the future, will the main position of thermal power really be replaced by clean energy? Where is the way out for coal? In the "tough time" of thermal power, on November 13, 2019, Guodian power issued a notice, agreeing that Guodian power, as a creditor, applied to the people's court for the bankruptcy liquidation of Guodian Xuanwei Power Generation Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Xuanwei company"). According to the above announcement of Guodian power, Xuanwei company is mainly engaged in power production and sales, with 6 coal-fired generating units of 300000 kW. Xuanwei company is located in Yunnan Province. Its predecessor is Xuanwei Power Plant in Yunnan Province. It was restructured into Xuanwei company in 2000 and implemented the expansion project.

As of September 30, 2019, Xuanwei company has total assets of RMB 2.388 billion, total liabilities of RMB 5.373 billion, owner's equity of RMB - 2.985 billion, and asset liability ratio of 225.02%. In fact, in 2019, Xuanwei is not the only power plant to be liquidated due to insolvency. On June 27, 2019, Datang Power Generation (2.500, 0.02, 0.81%) (601991. SH), a listed company of Datang Group, issued a notice that Gansu Datang International Liancheng Power Generation Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Datang Liancheng Power Generation"), a holding subsidiary, applied for bankruptcy liquidation to the people's Court of Yongdeng County, Gansu Province, on the ground that it was unable to pay the due amount of about 16443400 yuan. Similarly, Liancheng Power Generation in Tang Dynasty is also insolvent. As of May 31, 2019, the company's total assets are about 594 million yuan, total liabilities are about 1.773 billion yuan, asset liability ratio is about 298.5%, and the accumulated net profit in 2019 is about - 92 million yuan. This has nothing to do with coal industry capacity reduction. The reporter learned that from 2016, the coal industry began to reduce production capacity. According to the 13th five year plan for the development of coal industry, the coal industry will eliminate the excess and backward production capacity of 800 million tons / year. At the beginning of 2019, the relevant head of the national development and Reform Commission said that the main target tasks of capacity reduction in the coal industry during the 13th five year plan were basically completed, and further efforts should be made to improve the supply quality. Li Hua, who has been immersed in the coal power industry for many years, told reporters that after the effect of coal capacity reduction gradually appeared, it is also imminent for the thermal power industry to reduce capacity. Before the bankruptcy, most of the power plants were those enterprises with backward equipment, serious losses and insolvency. Therefore, after these enterprises are eliminated, it is not a bad thing for the thermal power industry, just like the initial stage of coal capacity removal, although there is pain, but practice has proved that after capacity removal, it is more conducive to the healthy and orderly development of the coal industry.

Li Hua believes that the losses of coal and power enterprises are cyclical. From 2008 to 2011, coal power saw its first industrial loss in history, with the accumulated loss of thermal power sector of five power generation groups reaching 92.1 billion yuan. At that time, during the "golden decade of coal", the high price of coal became the main cause of loss for thermal power enterprises. With the end of the "golden decade of coal" and the fall of coal price, thermal power enterprises began to recover. In 2015, the thermal power profits of the five major power generation groups reached 88.2 billion yuan. However, one year later, the profit "cut back" to 36.7 billion yuan; in 2017, the loss of thermal power reached 13.2 billion yuan, with 60% of the industry's loss; in 2018, about half of the national coal and power enterprises are still mired in loss. In addition to the coal price, which affects the profits of thermal power enterprises, the rise of clean energy is also one of the main reasons. "The world is in the critical period of deep adjustment of energy production and consumption structure. In terms of China's energy consumption structure in 2018, coal accounts for 59% and non fossil energy accounts for 14.3%. From the perspective of power structure, in 2018, the installed capacity of water, wind, light and biomass power generation in China has accounted for 38.3% of the total installed capacity, accounting for 26.7%; the installed capacity of coal power generation accounts for 53%, accounting for 63.7%. "

Yan guanglao, deputy secretary of the Party committee and general manager of Shaanxi coal group, told reporters at the 2020 working conference of Shaanxi coal group that on the whole, the proportion of non fossil energy consumption continued to rise, and the proportion of coal consumption and coal power generation decreased, which has become an irreversible trend. In fact, in the view of industry insiders, the change of energy consumption structure has augured in 2019. In the second half of 2019, led by five state-owned enterprises of Huaneng, Datang, Huadian, Guodian investment and national energy group, coal and power resources integration was carried out in five pilot areas of Gansu, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, Qinghai and Ningxia. The integration goal is to strive for a quarter to a third of the pressure drop of coal power capacity in the pilot area by the end of 2021, an obvious increase in the average utilization hours of equipment, an overall loss reduction of more than 50%, and a significant decrease in the asset liability ratio. In this regard, Yan guanglao believes that the curtain of regional coal power capacity reduction has been opened. Whether the unit energy efficiency is advanced and whether ultra-low emissions can be achieved will become a life and death test for all coal power enterprises in the pilot area; the bargaining power of the central power enterprises in the pilot area will be significantly enhanced, and the coal price pressure may be increased. On the other hand, the formal operation of the natural gas pipeline in the East China Russia pipeline will also affect the energy consumption structure of China.

On December 2, 2019, the natural gas pipeline of China Russia east line was officially put into operation for ventilation. Russia will supply 1 trillion cubic meters of natural gas to China in the next 30 years. Among them, the first phase is 5 billion cubic meters per year. After the whole line is put into operation in 2023, the annual supply is 38 billion cubic meters. This 38 billion cubic meters is equivalent to one seventh of China's total natural gas consumption in 2018 and nearly one quarter of China's total natural gas production in 2018. This will push the proportion of coal consumption further lower. At the same time of the low proportion of coal consumption, clean energy is quietly rising. "Cheap internet access has become a trend of clean energy development." Zhong Baoshen once disclosed to reporters that in the solar energy bidding held in Dalate Banner, Inner Mongolia, there has been a bid price of 0.26 yuan, and in many provinces and regions of China, the price of photovoltaic power generation has been lower than that of coal power. According to the public information, at present, many provinces in China have achieved the goal of using clean energy as the main power source, and have set a goal to achieve 100% clean energy use in the future. According to the work plan for Qinghai Province to build a national clean energy demonstration province (2018-2020) (hereinafter referred to as "the plan"), the people's Government of Qinghai Province proposes to build two 10 million kilowatt renewable energy bases in Hainan and Haixi. The plan clearly points out that centering on "making Qinghai become an important new energy industry base of the country", focusing on the large-scale development of new energy, aiming at 100% clean energy use, supported by scientific and technological innovation and guaranteed by the construction of smart grid, Qinghai will build a demonstration province of clean energy construction, use and output chain. Exploring a new way out thermal power has long been the main way out for coal. Even now, more than 2 / 3 of coal is used for power generation. If the market share of thermal power is gradually occupied or replaced by clean energy, where is the way out for coal? With the continuous adjustment of China's energy consumption structure, the proportion of non fossil energy consumption will become larger and larger. As the main raw material of traditional energy, industrial transformation is imminent.

"After the establishment of the state oil and gas pipeline network group, on the one hand, it will promote the exploration and development of oil through multi-channel investment, on the other hand, it will force the oil refining industry to move forward to the material industry. As for the natural gas industry, with the platform operation of the natural gas pipeline network, the unconventional natural gas industry will usher in a new development climax. " Yan Guanglao said that the severe economic challenges of coal based materials and the favorable development of unconventional natural gas in the future will bring new thinking to the transformation of the coal industry. In fact, in the coal industry, industrial transformation has formed a consensus. "Thermal power has long been the main consumption channel of coal, but it is the general trend that thermal power is gradually replaced by clean energy." Some coal enterprises believe that the future of coal development is in the chemical industry. Wang Huimin, general manager of Yulin Chemical Co., Ltd. of Shaanxi coal group, told reporters that China's energy structure is "rich in coal, poor in oil and little in gas". In order to solve the problem of oil and gas, coal has been given more missions, such as developing coal chemical industry. Wang Huimin told reporters that the modern coal chemical industry has solved the problem of high pollution, high energy consumption and "water like life". Among them, under the pressure of the new environmental protection law, some projects have reached zero emission; as for the problem of large water demand for coal chemical industry, it has also been solved. Nowadays, coal chemical enterprises are often built on coal mines, and the water discharged from coal mining is just recycled by coal chemical enterprises after treatment. As a matter of fact, the utilization of new chemical materials based on coal quality will break the bottleneck of coal chemical industry and petrochemical industry, realize the "dislocation" and "integration" of coal chemical industry and petrochemical industry, and further transform from conventional bulk raw materials to production of new materials. It is understood that the chemical industry output of Shaanxi coal group has reached 17.7 million tons, the number of products has reached dozens, and it is expected to exceed 100 in the future.