Is there still room to release the need for replenishment of power plants?

Specifically, this week, the port price around the Bohai Sea increased slightly, the power coal market in the production area operated stably, and the coking coal market continued to improve. In terms of ports, the decline of port inventory has led to the decrease of trading resources in the port market, the contraction of output caused by the coal mine holiday in the superimposed place of origin, which makes the seller's strong price psychology; in terms of the place of origin, the production of coal mines is normal, and the delivery situation is general, the market tends to be weak in supply and demand, and the price remains stable; In terms of coking coal, in the case of increasing production stoppage in the mining area, tight supply and the impact of snowfall, the demand of coking plant has increased, supporting the coking coal price to continue to rise. It is estimated that the market price of Bohai power coal will be better in the short term. Since the half month of 2020, the customs clearance of imported coal is still limited. According to the statistics of cctd, after the sharp decline of imported coal in December, the supplement of foreign coal is sluggish. Combined with the recent tight supply of production areas, the total coal storage of six coastal power plants fell below 15 million tons this week. Although the downstream consumption will also go into a low ebb during the festival, the recovery of supply may not reach the normal level quickly because the starting time of the main production area after the festival may be after the 15th day of the first month. Therefore, the coal consumption of power plants in the later stage still depends on their own inventory, and there is still room for release of the demand for replenishment before saving.

[Ports around the Bohai Sea] as of January 16, 2020, the total inventory of the four major ports around the Bohai Sea was 17.13 million tons, a decrease of 400000 tons compared with last week. With one week left before the Spring Festival, the number of coal mines shut down for holidays continues to increase, and the output continues to decrease; at the same time, the bad weather in this week hinders the coal transportation; thirdly, the upside down of shipping price restricts the enthusiasm of shippers. The expansion of production halt and the weakening of transportation liquidity, the continuous low railway traffic volume and the insufficient port centralized transportation have boosted the strong price sentiment in the market. On the other hand, the decline of coal storage in the port reduces the trading resources of the port at present, supports the seller's mentality of raising price, and the price rises slightly.

[East China] in terms of coke, some regions have accepted the intention of price increase, but most steel mills still hold a wait-and-see attitude towards price increase, and the market is relatively stagnant. The purchasing and expediting of steel plants are more active, the mentality of coking plants is stronger, and the coke price in some regions has started the fourth round of increase. The transportation of coke enterprises has recovered a little in the near future, and they ship more actively, and try not to keep inventory before the Spring Festival; meanwhile, the downstream steel plants still have a small amount of replenishment demand considering the transportation capacity during the Spring Festival and the impact of recent weather. In the short term, the supply and demand of coke market is basically balanced, and the mainstream market is temporarily stable. In the power coal market, the price of power coal in Shandong Province rose 5 CNY/ton this week.

[North China] in terms of coking coal, the demand of coking plants has recently started to rise. However, due to the impact of rain and snow, the coal mines of the superimposed origin have started to have holidays, and the supply of high-quality coking coal is in short supply, and the price of coking coal continues to rise. In terms of power coal, the port inventory fell, resources were in short supply, and coal prices in some areas were on the rise. According to cctd data statistics, Datong, Shuozhou and other regions power coal rose 5 CNY/ton.

[Northeast, eastern Mongolia] due to the approaching of Spring Festival, coal production enterprises have entered the holiday one after another, the supply of coal has declined, the purchase of the surrounding power plants before the festival has been pulled, and the price of low calorific value coal has increased slightly. On the other hand, during the Spring Festival, the downstream demand turns to be sluggish, the market purchasing enthusiasm declines, the market supply and demand are weak, and the price runs smoothly. The lignite market overall remained stable.

[Central and southern China] the maximum power load in central and southern China this week decreased first and then increased. The daily average power consumption in this week was about 31.5 million kilowatts, and the units in operation in the power plant were the same as that in last week. As of January 15, the total coal storage capacity of the power plant in Hubei Province was 5.079 million tons, a decrease of 68000 tons compared with last week. 

[Northwest China] Coal mines in Shaanxi Province are concentrated on the holiday of about 20 days. The number of coal trucks is small, the inventory is low, and the short-term coal price is stable. The Inner Mongolia area is close to shutdown, with low coal production and general sales. Some coal mines have relatively high inventory and stable coal price. In the production of coal mine, the delivery is general, the inventory is in the middle of operation, most of the mines are mainly supply platform and surrounding chemical industry, and the price adjustment intention is not strong. In the later stage, with the increase of holidays for upstream and downstream enterprises, the market tends to be weak in supply and demand, and the coal price will maintain stable operation.