Global Sweetener Innovation Trends

At present, sweetener ingredients are mainly sucrose, and artificial sweeteners have a large space to replace them.

Sweeteners replace sucrose
    At present, the sweetener ingredients are mainly sucrose, and artificial sweeteners have a large space for replacement.

Human's basic tastes are bitter, sweet, sour, and salty. Sweetness can bring pleasure to people. It is the most basic basic taste of people. It is often used to improve the palatability and flavor of products. The author of "A Brief History of Humanity" stated in the book that human beings cannot quit the pursuit of "sweet" taste enjoyment.

At present, sweetener ingredients are mainly sucrose. Sweet ingredient products play an important role in the food and beverage industry, and have important applications in improving the sensory quality of food and promoting food innovation. At present, common sweetener ingredients include sucrose, fructose syrup, sweeteners, and natural sugar. Among them, sucrose accounts for 78% of the market and is the main product of sweet ingredients at present.

Global sucrose production is steadily rising. From 2010 to 2018, global sucrose production maintained a steady growth rate, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.92%. In 2018, the global sucrose production reached 15.059 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.40%. In recent years, the average price of sucrose has been around RMB 5,500 / t. Based on this calculation, the market space for sucrose has reached 828.2 billion.

Public health awareness strengthened, the government promoted the progress of sugar replacement

Carbohydrates easily cause obesity, diabetes, etc., and have a negative impact on people's health. In recent years, with the intake of high-sugar and high-energy diets, the rates of diabetes, overweight, obesity, and dental caries have continued to rise, which has adversely affected people's health. In March 2014, the World Health Organization consulted publicly on the draft sugar intake guidelines. The draft recommended that adults' daily sugar intake should be controlled at 5% of total energy intake on the day, about 25 grams. Authoritative experts in the United States "The magazine publicly stated that sugar is the biggest public health crisis in the history of the world." It is like another kind of tobacco, which consumes more than chronic suicide. " According to statistics from the International Diabetes Federation (IDF), there were approximately 425 million people with diabetes worldwide in 2017, with 1 in every 11 people suffering from diabetes. It is predicted that by 2045, 700 million people worldwide will have diabetes.

Sugar reduction has risen to the level of national control, and most countries levy sugar control. At present, in many countries and regions, sugar reduction has been promoted to the level of national compulsory management and control, and tax policies for foods in the high-sugar field have been gradually formulated and promulgated. It can be seen that food health and safety have become important for the development of enterprises Weathervane, which will accelerate the development of the sweetener industry.

Sugar substitute beverages have become a consumption trend, and companies have launched sugar substitute products

The demand for sugar substitute food market is growing rapidly. From the perspective of food and beverage, taking Coca-Cola, which has the largest market share in beverages, as an example, Coca-Cola's traditional carbonated beverages have experienced years of revenue decline since 2013, and its sweetness cola production has declined at a rate of nearly 3% per year. However, Coca-Cola's low-sugar unsweetened carbonated beverages have maintained double-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters. Coca-Cola's 2018 second quarter report data shows that Coca-Cola's low-sugar unsweetened carbonated beverage products have grown at 12%.

Low sugar and low energy have become a trend in the beverage industry. As more and more people regard sugar as the main source of unnecessary calories and weight gain, consumers are beginning to actively control their sugar intake, low calorie requirements of consumers and the introduction of "sugar taxes" in some countries Under the influence of manufacturers, manufacturers launch products with healthier ingredients and formulas to win back consumers. Among them, Coca-Cola has launched nearly ten new sugar-reducing products since 2018.

Rising sucrose prices speed up sweetener replacement

There is a certain correlation between sweetener output and sugar futures prices. We have listed the relationship between US sweetener production and sugar futures prices from 2006 to 2016. Through calculation, we get a correlation between the two to reach 0.6672. From 2006 to 2008, the No. 11 sugar futures contract was changed from 14.75 U.S. cents / pound fell to 9.75 cents / lb, then rose to 12.37 cents / lb in 2008, and sweetener production fell from 24.7 billion pounds in 2006 to 23.1 billion pounds in 2008, and then rose to 25.1 billion pounds in 2009 . From 2011 to 2014, the price of No. 11 sugar futures fell all the way, and sweetener output also showed a downward trend. In 2015, the price of No. 11 sugar futures bottomed out, and sweetener output also rose. It can be seen that there is a positive correlation between the output of sweeteners and the price of No. 11 sugar futures.

In the short term, the central move of sugar prices is expected to accelerate the replacement of sweeteners. The domestic sucrose production is mainly affected by the area of sugarcane planting. Since sugarcane is a three-year sugarcane root crop, domestic sucrose generally exhibits a cyclical characteristic of reduced production after three years of increased production, which causes cyclical fluctuations in sugar prices. We believe that the current price of white sugar is in a relatively low range, and the price of white sugar is likely to rise in the future. The sweetener price is more significant than the advantage.

Artificial sweeteners have a low price-to-sweet ratio. In general, the price-performance ratio of sweeteners is measured by the price-sweet ratio, which is the price required to achieve a unit of sweetness. Generally, the sweetness of sucrose is defined as 1. Through comparison, when artificial sweetener and sucrose achieve the same sweetness, the cost of artificial sweetener is less than 10% of sucrose. Can greatly reduce its production costs.