The market outlook for high nitrogen fertilizer prices may be stable and down

This year's spring farming market is relatively "hurried". With the rise of raw material prices in the early period, the price of spring compound fertilizer has risen to a certain extent, which is nearly a hundred yuan per ton higher than that before the Spring Festival. To a certain extent, it has driven the trading atmosphere of the spring compound fertilizer market.

The spring compound fertilizer market is fleeting and the summer high-Nitrogen fertilizer market has started one after another. Compared with the spring market, the price of high-nitrogen fertilizers has attracted much attention, although some companies have recently tentatively introduced prices, 40% (28-6-6 / 30-5-5) The mainstream ex-factory quotation is around 1850-1900 CNY/ton, but the future trend and related preferential policies are not yet clear. In view of the recent sluggish overall fertilizer market and terminal market sentiment, there is news that the market price of high nitrogen fertilizer may be down to the Lord.

First, the raw material market. After experiencing the boom in spring price increases, the recent raw material market is a surprise. The Urea market is mainly stalemate, the domestic industrial and agricultural demand is insufficient, the specific results of the marking have not been fully determined, the overall market sentiment is pessimistic, and it is expected that it will be difficult to improve in the short term; summer fertilizers are mainly high-nitrogen fertilizers. The single transaction was not good, the monoammonium market continued to run weakly; the potash fertilizer market remained stable, and the price of Potassium Chloride was falling. It is expected that the market will continue to be weak and deserted before the signing of the potash fertilizer contract. Therefore, in terms of raw material costs, the high nitrogen fertilizer There are few positive supports, and its price is expected to be weak.

Second, downstream demand. Taking the spring compound fertilizer market as an example, although the price of spring compound fertilizer increased compared with the same period last year, many dealers said that overall sales have declined compared with previous years. The first reason is that the enthusiasm for grass-roots cultivation is limited. The activity stagnate for a period of time, and the agricultural products in the southern economic crop planting area have been slow to sell, which has reduced the income of grass-roots agriculture to a certain extent, and the enthusiasm for natural planting has weakened; the second reason is that the local field cooperatives are prevalent, and the situation of unified purchase and marketing has increased. As a result, large growers can directly connect with the manufacturers, reducing the number of dealers. Therefore, the trading atmosphere of the terminal compound fertilizer market has weakened.

Finally, upstream supply. Since the beginning of March, the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has shown a gradual upward trend. According to China Fertilizer, as of this weekend, the overall operating rate of large-scale compound fertilizer companies nationwide is around 66%. Although it has fallen from the previous two weeks, it has remained relatively high High level. The recent spring fertilizer market is coming to an end, the early orders received in advance have basically been completed, and the sales of new summer fertilizer orders are limited. Some companies have correspondingly reduced the number of starts to prepare for summer fertilizer prices and policies. Enterprises will also reduce the operating rate appropriately, but with the release of market demand, the upstream supply situation is bound to recover soon.

In summary, before the spring compound fertilizer market is completely over, the prices and preferential policies of high nitrogen fertilizers have received much attention. At present, the tentative quotation of enterprises does not represent the future price trend. Combining the above raw materials and supply and demand, the price of high nitrogen fertilizers is expected The market outlook may be steady down.