US Retailers Expect Slower Import Growth in 2018

US import growth will decelerate in 2018 after an impressive 6.4 percent jump in 2017, with the second half of the new year expected to be weaker than the first half, according to the latest Global Port Tracker, the National Retail Federation announced Friday.

January imports will slip 0.5 percent compared to a year prior, before rocketing 11.6 percent year-over-year in February, according to the report produced by Hackett Associates on behalf on the National Retail Federation. Global Port Tracker forecasts imports will fall 2 percent in March compared to the same period in 2017.

However, the projections for February and March contain a qualifier: they are skewed, due to a shift in the Asian factories close dates in 2018 for the Lunar New Year, the study said.

Regarding April 2018, imports are projected to rise 3.6 percent compared to April 2017, the study shows.

However, despite the projected 2018 growth slowdown, the federation said “recession is not on the horizon.”

Further, the Global Port Tracker ticked up it 2017 import volume forecast to a record 20 million TEU — a 6.4 percent increase from from 2016. That’s up slightly from the 6.3 percent 2017 increase forecast earlier. In 2016, US ports imported 18.8 million TEUs, which was also a record but up only 3.1 percent from 2015, according to the tracker, which is prepared with Hackett Associates.

“Retailers are doing last-minute restocking as consumers head toward the finish line of the shopping season,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a release.

Gold added, however, that “The majority of holiday merchandise is already in the country and ports are beginning to quiet down.”

The volume of cargo imported into United States ports through October — about 19 million loaded TEU — is up 5.5 percent compared to the same period in 2016, according to PIERS, a sister product of JOC.com, a unit of IHS Markit. The volume for October, about 2 million loaded TEUs, was 6.3 percent above that month in 2016, and the September volume of 1.92 million was also 6.3 percent above the same month in 2016, PIERS figures show.

Imports this past January were relatively strong — 5.2 percent above the 2016 figure, according to PIERS — because factories in Asia fast-forwarded production ahead of the Chinese New Year, which was Jan. 28. Many factories in Asia close for a week or two for the celebrations. The February figure, however, was 4.1 percent below the figure for February 2016, PIERS figures show.