Chemicals ushered in 'spring', PVC prices rose 23% in February

PVC futures prices rose 23% in two months

On May 25, the prices of most chemical commodities on the domestic futures market strengthened. As of the afternoon close, the main contract of PVC reported a rise of 0.58% to close at 6070 CNY/ton.
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Affected by the plunge in crude oil prices caused by the new coronary pneumonia epidemic and the decline in global demand, PVC futures prices experienced a short-term plunge from mid-March to early April. However, with the recovery of international crude oil prices, PVC prices have gradually recovered their previous declines.

From April 1 to the present, the main contract for PVC 2009 started to fluctuate upwards from 4,950 CNY/ton, and the cumulative increase in less than two months has been nearly 23%.

"As a commodity with strong financial attributes, PVC futures prices have a significant impact on the spot market. Recently, PVC futures prices are active, which also drives spot prices to strengthen simultaneously." Tong He, a business analyst, pointed out in an interview with the Securities Times · e company reporter.

As of May 22, domestic mainstream PVC quotations ranged from 5,700 CNY/ton to 6,100 CNY/ton. At present, the mainstream of PVC5 type calcium carbide in Changzhou is around 5980 CNY/ton ~ 6080 CNY/ton, the area of PVC5 type calcium carbide in Hangzhou is around 6030 CNY/ton ~ 6080 CNY/ton, and the mainstream price of PVC ordinary calcium carbide in Guangzhou is 6180 CNY/ton. ~ 6200 CNY/ton, real transactions can be negotiated. The spot stocks all exceeded the 6,000 yuan mark. The domestic PVC spot prices continued to rise, the center of gravity moved upward, and the low-end prices were relatively low. The mainstream prices were all around 6,000 yuan, which boosted market sentiment.

"The weak PVC prices in the early stage have caused a partial profit inversion in the market. After the recent rebound, PVC manufacturers are generally in a profitable state and have a strong price mentality." Tong He said that before PVC exports are large, but the current Due to the epidemic situation, demand in overseas markets is very weak, so the main focus of the current market is on the domestic market.

After entering April and May, infrastructure and real estate have also entered the peak season. Pipe and profile companies have recovered faster, and the demand for PVC has been boosted. In addition, the demand for cables and medical industries continues to be strong, and the demand for other downstream products is still slow. Recovering.

At the same time, some PVC production enterprises still have maintenance plans recently. The output has decreased and social stocks have continued to decline. The supply of goods in southern China is still tight. Manufacturers are shipping smoothly. Some regions have rushed goods. The practitioners are positive and optimistic. .

Strong prices of various chemical commodities

In addition to PVC, the prices of domestic chemical commodities have tended to pick up recently, and the price of raw materials has increased significantly due to the recent increase in helmet demand.

According to Baocheng Futures Research, the prices of some ABS helmet materials rose rapidly last week, and some brands rose by more than 1,000 CNY/ton. PS and EPS are also used for the production of helmets, so the market buying is also boosted. The demand for styrene is expected to strengthen. With the announcement of a paper issued by the Ministry of Public Security, styrene calmly declined. On the whole, styrene continues to maintain a state of shock and upward movement.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, last week, in the commodity price list, there were 12 types of commodities that rose in the rubber and plastics sector, and one of them increased by more than 5%, accounting for 5.6% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; The top 3 commodities are PET (5.38%), ABS (3.46%), PVC (3.34%). There are two kinds of products with a price decrease compared with the previous month, and one kind of products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 5.6% of the monitored products in this sector; the top two products with a decline are PP (melt blown) (-9.3%) and PA66 (-0.78%).

"The market has judged before that after the epidemic, the gradual resumption of production in China will bring about a certain demand cover. At present, the market has seen a replenishing rebound. From the commodity price trends in April and early May, it can be Make sure that this trend has already emerged. "

Talking about the factors of the recent strengthening of domestic chemical commodity prices, Cheng Xiaoyong, director of Baocheng Futures Finance Institute, told the Securities Times · e company reporter that the upward price of chemical products has a great relationship with the cost recovery caused by the rebound in international crude oil prices. In addition, the "two sessions" are currently being held, and market expectations for policies also have an incentive effect on commodity rebounds.

 Can the "spring" of chemicals last?

Is this trend in the recovery of chemical commodity prices sustainable?

"At present, it is worth noting that the chemical product demand replenishment caused by the squeeze of orders in the early stage may have basically ended by mid-May. Later, if the chemical commodities continue to maintain an upward channel, it depends on the sustainability of the demand replenishment. Sexual situation. "Cheng Xiaoyong believes that the previous order squeeze was mainly concentrated in the period of complete shutdown and shutdown in February, with a total duration of about one month.

PMI's on-hand order data has dropped from the high rebound in March. After the squeeze order is delivered, the rush to work later will be weakened. Judging from this logic, if chemicals later enter the ascending channel, more benefits are needed.

He believes that the entire chemical commodities have entered a stage of rebound due to the demand replenishment brought about by the resumption of production and production, but to say that it has completely entered the recovery stage, it is not possible to define this definition at present. The difference in the price increase of different varieties has a great relationship with demand. PVC and other products are strongly related to real estate infrastructure, so the strength of the rebound is high. The price trend of chemical products in the later period also depends on whether there are more boosting factors in the follow-up of demand.

"It is currently at the key point of the logic switch between the old and the new. The global epidemic is still continuing. Although the possibility of negative oil prices recovering from crude oil recovery is not very large, it will also meet the ceiling after rebounding to $ 40 / barrel." The recovery is not due to the recovery of overseas demand, but due to the spontaneous production reduction of the company. The scale of the market's spontaneous production reduction is a little larger than the scale of the original production reduction agreement. The rebound is a reduction in supply, not an increase in demand.

In response to the price trend of PVC commodities, Tong He believes that the current PVC prices are already at a relatively high point, but currently including macro policies and the convening of the two sessions of the country, in the short term are all positive factors for PVC, and there is still room for upward commodity prices.