Looking at the changes in the ethylene glycol industry in 2020 through numbers

In 2020, starting from the global spread of public health events, the global economy experienced a substantial downward adjustment during the year, and China's ethylene glycol industry also experienced multiple tests during this period. The collapse of the cost of ethylene glycol, the price drop, and the substantial expansion of production capacity will all be completed in 2020. This article records the changes in the ethylene glycol industry in 2020 in digital form and will review with you.

Price: peak value 5500 CNY/ton, valley value 2870 CNY/ton, -19.52%

In 2020, under the background of the global economic recession caused by the gradual spread of public health incidents, the demand for crude oil has shrunk significantly due to the global traffic blockade and retail industry closures, and oil prices have fallen sharply and even have negative oil prices. Under the influence of a substantial cost collapse and an imbalance between supply and demand, the price of ethylene glycol started at a high price in 2020, and quickly dropped to a new low of more than ten years below 3,000 CNY/ton at the end of March. Subsequently, with the prevention and control of public health incidents taking effect and the support of the recovery of market demand, energy-based commodities such as ethylene glycol continued to rebound. The peak value of the ethylene glycol market price in 2020 will be 5,500 CNY/ton in mid-January, and the trough will be 2870 CNY/ton at the end of March. In 2020, the average market price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang was 3,830 CNY/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 26.71%.

Production cost: 3821.06 CNY/ton, -1.46%

In 2020, crude oil, coal, naphtha, ethylene and other ethylene glycol raw materials all fell sharply at the beginning of the year, and the production cost of ethylene glycol fell rapidly. At this stage, the profit of oil-to-ethylene glycol rose instead of falling. However, it is worth mentioning that the decline in coal prices in 2020 was relatively small, and continued to rebound in the second half of the year, resulting in only a slight decline in the production cost of coal-to-ethylene glycol year-on-year. In 2020, the production cost of coal-based ethylene glycol will be 3,821.06 CNY/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 1.46%.

Capacity: 15.702 million tons, 45.90%

China's ethylene glycol production capacity will expand significantly in 2020. As of December 31, 2020, China's ethylene glycol production capacity reached 15.702 million tons/year, a year-on-year increase of 45.90%. In 2020, the production capacity of the polyester bottle flake industry will increase by 4.94 million tons, of which the new capacity mainly includes Hengli Dalian, Zhejiang Petrochemical (Phase I), Zhongke Refinery, Sinochem Quanzhou and other refining and chemical integrated supporting ethylene glycol equipment and Yan Mine Rongxin, Shanxi Woneng, Henan Longyu (Phase II), Xinjiang Tianye (Phase IV) and other syngas to ethylene glycol plants.

Production/startup: 8.8063 million tons, 17.05%; 56.08%/down 13.83 percentage points

In 2020, China's ethylene glycol production was 8.863 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.05%, and the annual average start-up was 56.08%, a year-on-year decrease of 13.83 percentage points. The substantial increase in production is mainly affected by the increase in supply capacity brought about by the commissioning of multiple new ethylene glycol units in 2020. On the one hand, due to the large cost pressure caused by the low price of ethylene glycol, the ethylene glycol plant has stopped and reduced the load (long-term shutdown of multiple coal plants, and the oil plant has reduced the output ratio of ethylene glycol). ; On the other hand, the impact of changes in the production base due to the concentrated commissioning of multiple new devices in the second half of the year.

Import volume (January to November): 999.69 million tons, 10.76%

Affected by global public health events in 2020, overseas ethylene glycol demand has decreased significantly. At the same time, with the rebound of ethylene glycol prices in China after the first quarter, most of the overseas surplus glycol supplies flow to the domestic market, and overall imports continue to increase. In the fourth quarter Due to higher overseas ethylene glycol prices, arbitrage space has opened up, and some sources of goods have returned to Europe and Southeast Asia. At the same time, the contract reduction caused by the overhaul of some overseas installations caused a significant drop in imports at the end of the year. From January to November, the import volume of ethylene glycol was 9.9969 million tons, an increase of 10.76% year-on-year.

Demand: 18.6671 million tons, 4.64%

The total demand for ethylene glycol in 2020 will be 18.6672 million tons, an increase of 4.64% year-on-year. At this stage, downstream demand for ethylene glycol is mainly concentrated in the polyester industry, which accounts for more than 95% of the total demand for ethylene glycol. In 2020, due to the impact of the public health incident at the beginning of the year, the start of polyester production remained low in the first quarter, resulting in an additional reduction in the demand for ethylene glycol. Although the subsequent start of polyester production continued to rise, and new polyester equipment was put into production, inventory pressure during the year As a result, the start of the polyester industry has not yet returned to a historical high level, and the growth in demand for ethylene glycol is relatively small.