Under the epidemic, the overcapacity of vitamin C ushered in a turning point

In 2020, the price of vitamin C gradually walked out of the trough and reached a new level in the fourth quarter. This is one of the few successful counterattacks for vitamin C prices in the context of overcapacity over the years. The main reason: the continuation of the domestic and international epidemics has made vitamin C, as the cheapest bulk health product, widely used, and the demand has increased significantly. In 2020, China's annual export volume of vitamin C and its derivatives will exceed 200,000 tons, which is the largest export volume in the past 10 years, and it has increased by more than 32% year-on-year. It was still 120,000-130,000 tons five years ago. level. From a quantitative point of view, the contribution of the global epidemic to the entire vitamin C demand is obvious.

In the past two years, the overcapacity of the domestic vitamin C industry (mainly the production of Heilongjiang Xinhecheng) has caused a sharp decline in market prices. The average export price in 2018 was US$5.7/KG, and the average price in 2019 was only US$3.6/KG. The price is 3.7 US dollars/KG, which is the normal level except for the price increase of vitamins in the past 10 years. After the 85th API China Nanjing API Conference in 2020, vitamin C manufacturers began to increase their quotations, food grade increased to 40 yuan/kg, an increase of nearly 60% from the previous low price; in addition, the price increase of its raw material corn starch was also the main reason for the price increase. Fuse: By December, the price of vitamin C has been raised to 60-65 yuan/KG, and the export price is 9 US dollars/KG; it has set a new price record. For this reason, we judge that there will be significant changes in transaction prices in the first quarter of 2021.

Among the export regions in 2020, Hebei Province (represented by CSPC Weisheng) and Shandong Province (represented by Shandong Luwei and Shandong Tianli) accounted for 30.84% and 30.12%, respectively, and Jiangsu Province (DSM Jiangshan and Yixing Jiangshan as representatives) (Representative) accounted for 12.99%; Zhejiang ranked fourth, accounting for 5.76%; among them, Liaoning Province (represented by Northeast Pharmaceutical) decreased its export volume, accounting for only 3.77%; it can be seen that mainstream companies still dominate. New companies cannot be ignored.

In 2020, my country's vitamin C exports to 139 countries and regions, the demand for vitamin C series of raw materials is still in Europe and the United States, of which the United States accounted for 28.44%, followed by Germany, accounting for 7.57%, the Netherlands and Japan accounting for 6.88% and 5.37% respectively ; India’s imports have increased significantly this year, accounting for only 1.52% last year; while Spain’s market share decreased by 98% year-on-year.

In the future, the domestic production capacity of vitamin C will still be huge. Whether the demand continues to grow or maintain the level of the previous year will directly affect the later price trend. In addition, the sales of health care products and food vitamin C are booming, and the international environment is affected by factors such as exchange rates and logistics, and prices are still strong in the short term. Among domestic suppliers, the gradual release of Xinhecheng’s 30,000 tons of production capacity, the continuous follow-up of the 40,000 tons of vitamin C project by Inner Mongolia Huabei Pharmaceutical Huakai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., and the recovery of production capacity after the relocation of Northeast Pharmaceutical will bring certain market competition. Impact.