Foreign trade has been growing for 11 consecutive months! Exports to ASEAN exceed expectations

In the first April of this year, my country's foreign trade continued its good momentum, and it has recovered or even surpassed the level before the new crown pneumonia epidemic.

On May 7, the General Administration of Customs released data showing that the total value of my country’s foreign trade imports and exports in the first four months of this year was 11.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 28.5% over the same period last year and an increase of 21.8% over the same period in 2019. At the same time, in April, the total value of imports and exports, exports, and imports all achieved substantial year-on-year growth, and the growth rate was faster than the previous month. Compared with market forecast data, exports in April performed slightly better than expected, and imports achieved high growth.

Li Kuiwen, Director of the Statistics and Analysis Department of the General Administration of Customs, said that my country’s foreign trade imports and exports have achieved positive growth for 11 consecutive months. Compared with the same period in 2019, the growth rate of imports and exports in the first four months of this year is as high as 21.8%, which shows that my country is coordinating the epidemic situation. Major strategic results have been achieved in prevention and control and economic and social development, and foreign trade stabilization policies and measures have been effective and effective.

Looking forward to the later period, experts interviewed by reporters believe that the new round of the epidemic has slowed the decline of China's export share, but with the arrival of the inflection point of global liquidity, there will be downward pressure on demand. Policies and measures to stabilize foreign trade cannot be easily withdrawn.

The total value of imports and exports has achieved positive growth for 11 consecutive months

Customs statistics show that in the first four months of this year, the total value of my country's foreign trade imports and exports was 11.62 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.5% and a year-on-year increase of 21.8%. Among them, exports were 6.32 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.8%, and a year-on-year increase of 24.8%; imports were 5.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.7%, and a year-on-year increase of 18.4%; a trade surplus was 1.02 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 149.7 %.

Li Kuiwen said that since June last year, my country's foreign trade imports and exports have achieved positive growth for 11 consecutive months. Compared with the same period in 2019, the growth rate of imports and exports in the first four months of this year is as high as 21.8%, which shows that my country is coordinating epidemic prevention and control. Major strategic results have been achieved in economic and social development, and policies and measures to stabilize foreign trade are effective and effective.

Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce Research Institute, told reporters that the success of domestic epidemic prevention and control is an important foundation for foreign trade expansion. There are three reasons for the continued good momentum of my country's foreign trade:

First, the transformation and upgrading of foreign trade continued to play a role, consolidating the industrial foundation for foreign trade development;

The second is the repeated epidemics in some countries and regions in the world, and China's stable supply capacity has been reflected;

Third, on the basis of the control of the epidemic in Europe and the United States, countries such as Europe and the United States have brought the epidemic to start their economies, which has driven demand to rebound.

By country, both my country's imports and exports with major trading partners have increased. In the first four months, my country's imports and exports to ASEAN, EU, US, and Japan were 1.72 trillion yuan, 1.63 trillion yuan, 1.44 trillion yuan, and 770.64 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 27.6%, 32.1%, 50.3% and 16.2% respectively. Among them, ASEAN is my country's largest trading partner, accounting for 14.8% of my country's total foreign trade value. During the same period, my country's imports and exports with countries along the "Belt and Road" totaled 3.43 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.8%, accounting for 29.5% of my country's total foreign trade import and export value.

It can be seen from the above that the year-on-year growth rate of my country's imports and exports to ASEAN, EU, and the United States is faster than the overall growth rate of total imports and exports. The year-on-year growth rate of imports and exports between my country and countries along the “Belt and Road” is basically the same as the overall growth rate.

In addition, in the first four months, my country's general trade import and export increased and the proportion increased. my country imported 1.41 trillion yuan in bonded logistics, an increase of 29.2%. Among them, exports were 495.1 billion yuan, an increase of 40.7%; imports were 914.78 billion yuan, an increase of 23.7%. The performance of private enterprises is still outstanding, and imports and exports continue to grow. In the first four months, the import and export of private enterprises was 5.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 40.8%, accounting for 47.2% of my country's total foreign trade value, an increase of 4.1 percentage points over the same period last year.

Growth in exports to ASEAN boosted exports to exceed expectations in April

In April, my country’s total import and export value was 3.15 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.6%. Among them, exports were 1.71 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%; imports were 1.44 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.2%. Compared with the market forecast data, the export performance slightly exceeded expectations, and the import achieved high growth.

In an interview with reporters, Bai Ming said that in April 2020, my country's exports achieved positive growth for the first time since the epidemic. The high growth data this month on the base of positive growth in the same period last year reflects that my country's exports are showing expansionary growth.

Li Qilin, chief economist of Hongta Securities, said that the export data in April was a little bit better than expected. It should be ASEAN that pushed China's exports year-on-year to exceed expectations. Data show that in April China’s exports ranked first in the order of the United States, ASEAN and the European Union, accounting for 15.9%, 15.6% and 15.1% respectively. From the perspective of the year-on-year growth rate of exports, the year-on-year growth rate of the United States, ASEAN, and the EU was only higher than that of ASEAN.

“The year-on-year increase in ASEAN was due to the low base last year, on the one hand, and the recovery of the ASEAN economy on the other hand. Vietnam’s PMI reached 54.7 in April, a new high since 2019. At the same time, Vietnam and other countries have effectively controlled the epidemic and did not show up A new round of the epidemic.” Li Qilin said, however, exports to the United States are still relatively strong, with a year-on-year growth rate similar to that of overall exports.

Li Qilin said that by project, the U.S. economy continues to recover. At the same time, with the vaccination, this round of the epidemic has little impact on the United States and other countries. Coupled with the vigorous real estate cycle, U.S. residents are more concerned about durable and non-durable goods. Consumption continued to rise month-on-month. Reflected in the data, clothing and clothing accessories, luggage and similar containers, furniture and their parts have seen a year-on-year increase in April. In addition, production-related commodities still maintain a relatively high growth rate.

Li Qilin pointed out that it should be noted that there is downward pressure on anti-epidemic supplies. April 2020 is the peak of the first round of the epidemic in the world. At that time, anti-epidemic materials supported China's exports. The high base puts downward pressure on anti-epidemic supplies this year.

Looking into the later period, Li Qilin believes that whether exports can continue to exceed expectations remains to be seen. On the one hand, the new round of the epidemic has slowed down the process of economic recovery in emerging market countries, which will undoubtedly slow down the process of China's export share decline. At the same time, the trend of global economic recovery this year is obvious, and the logic of making the cake bigger is more clear. For example, in the context of Vietnam’s economic recovery, China’s exports to Vietnam have risen year-on-year. In addition to the increase in Vietnam’s consumption, it also shows that China can achieve industry with Vietnam. The recovery of production in Vietnam will also lead to higher demand for related products in China.

On the other hand, the inflection point of overseas liquidity has arrived. In March, US M2 increased by 24.26% year-on-year, which was 2.7 percentage points lower than that in February. It can be predicted that the follow-up M2 increment will definitely be weaker than the same period last year, which means that M2 will continue to decline. This phenomenon also exists in the European Union. With the arrival of the inflection point of global liquidity, there will be downward pressure on demand.

Bai Ming pointed out that the new export order index for April announced by the National Bureau of Statistics was 50.4. Although it is still in the business range, it has fallen from the previous month. Policies and measures to stabilize foreign trade cannot be easily withdrawn.

Three factors jointly promote high imports

In April, my country's imports were 1.44 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.2%, a month-on-month decrease of 2.2%, and an increase of 18.4% over the same period in 2019.

Li Qilin said that in April 2020, imports fell by 14.41% year-on-year, and the base reason was one of the reasons for the higher growth this month.

At the same time, the continued rise in commodity prices has driven imports to rebound. Driven by market expectations and the existence of supply and demand gaps, commodity prices showed a general upward trend in April. In April, LME copper rose by 11.6%, SHFE rebar rose by 8.8%, and ICE oil distribution rose by 5.9%. . The increase in the price of imported goods has supported the year-on-year growth rate of imports, so we can see that the amount of iron ore and its concentrate, and the amount of copper ore and its concentrate is much higher than the year-on-year volume. In addition to mineral products, the prices of international agricultural products are also rising, as do major imported agricultural products such as soybeans.

In addition, domestic production remains high and consumption continues to recover, which also drives up domestic imports.

Regarding the month-on-month decline in the value of imports, Bai Ming said that this shows to a certain extent that the demand for import spillovers is not so strong. But it should also be noted that the month-to-month chain ratio will be affected by seasonal factors.

The monthly growth rate of trade in services also turned positive for the first time

On the same day, the Ministry of Commerce announced the service import and export data for March. In March, my country’s total service imports and exports amounted to 444.12 billion yuan, an increase of 7.9%, marking the first monthly increase since the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia. Exports were 210.36 billion yuan, an increase of 24.3%; imports were 233.76 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.6%.

Specifically, the three fastest growing areas are transportation services, personal cultural and entertainment services, and intellectual property royalties, with increases of 56.2%, 34.5%, and 33.6% respectively.

Bai Ming said that the main contribution of service trade in the past was tourism services, but it has not yet recovered due to the drag of the epidemic, and it is not realistic to achieve recovery in the short term. At present, with the changes in the trade structure, the gap in tourism services is gradually being filled by developing other service trade. In the future, service trade still has a lot of room for development.

Looking at the entire first quarter, the total value of my country's service trade import and export was RMB 115.819 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%. Compared with the same period in 2019, service import and export fell by 10.4%, of which exports increased by 17.7%; imports fell by 26.1%.