Suppliers Hold Prices Against Weak Demand, PC Prices Remain Low in Early August

August 13th News

Price Trend

According to the bulk commodity list data, in the first half of August, the Chinese PC market mainly showed a consolidation trend, with spot prices for most grades changing within a narrow range. As of August 13, the mixed benchmark price for PC was around 14,316.67 CNY/ton, representing a change rate of -0.12% compared to early August.

Reason Analysis

Supply Side: In the first half of August, the operating rates of China's PC polymerization enterprises increased. At the end of last month, Sichuan Tianhua, Cangzhou Dahua, and Pingmei Shenma restarted operations, and recently, Shengtong Juyuan also has plans to resume production. Only some facilities of Wanhua Chemical have scheduled maintenance shutdowns. The average industry operating rate has rebounded from 77% to nearly 82%, with weekly production approaching 69,000 tons. The market is flooded with supply, and inventories remain high, maintaining an ample supply situation for PC. With fewer maintenance announcements in the future, the pressure to sell remains, and the supply side does not provide strong support for PC prices.

Raw Materials Aspect: As shown in the chart above, Bisphenol A (BPA) mainly traded sideways during the first half of August. Upstream acetone and phenol showed limited fluctuations, providing limited guidance for BPA prices. On the other hand, while BPA supply tends to ease, demand remains weak without any significant improvement, leaving the market lacking upward momentum. Overall, the BPA market is stable but weak, offering only moderate support to polycarbonate (PC) costs.

Demand Aspect: Currently, we are still in the traditional off-season for polycarbonate (PC). Downstream factories maintain low operating rates, with purchasing mainly driven by weak immediate needs rather than proactive stocking. Due to the prolonged sluggishness of industry market dynamics and high social inventory levels, the market is flooded with goods, and the supply-demand contradiction within this range has not improved. Currently, end-user companies are cautious about placing new orders and remain resistant to high-priced supplies. Pressure on merchants' capital has increased, leading to more frequent price concessions in actual transactions. The circulation speed of goods within the market remains slow, and trading activities continue to be dominated by contract deliveries. Overall, demand-side support for PC spot prices is weak.

Future Market Forecast

In the first half of August, the Chinese PC market experienced fluctuations and consolidation. The upstream bisphenol A market remained stable but showed some weakness, providing only moderate support for PC cost values. The operating rates of Chinese PC polymerization plants increased, maintaining a strong supply situation. Downstream demand still exhibited characteristics of the off-season, making it difficult for the market to show positive trends, and industry players maintained a wait-and-watch attitude towards future developments. Although current PC prices are already at historical lows, market momentum is unlikely to improve in the short term, and it is expected that the PC market may continue to search for a bottom.