This Week PVC Market Continues to Weaken, Short-Term Outlook is Bearish

November 21, news

I. Price Trends

According to the commodity market analysis system, this week (11.17-21) the PVC spot market showed a range-bound fluctuation, with weak price performance. By Friday, the average price of SG-5 type PVC produced by the calcium carbide method in China was 4,416 CNY/ton, down 0.96% from the previous week.

II. Market Analysis

This week, PVC continued its weak performance from the previous period. Most manufacturers maintained stable quotes, with some mainly lowering their prices by less than 100 yuan. Since entering November, the PVC market has been in a continuous weak range-bound fluctuation. On one hand, the fundamentals lack positive factors, and crude oil prices have remained persistently low, hovering at low levels, with a weak futures market. The PVC spot price also struggled to show strong momentum, with the overall range slightly declining. More importantly, the supply-demand fundamentals remain in a state of oversupply, with the spot PVC market continuing to be loose. Most manufacturers are operating stably, and the PVC production rate continued to increase this week. Supply pressure remains high, and dealers generally quote weakly. Downstream demand is insufficient, with most downstream purchases being made on a point pricing basis, and the enthusiasm for inquiries and purchases is not high, resulting in a quiet market atmosphere. The listed prices are low. Overall, the market is still dominated by rigid demand, with a moderate trading atmosphere. As of now, the quotations for Chinese PVC SG5 type calcium carbide material mostly range between 4,450-4,520 CNY/ton.

In the upstream calcium carbide sector, this week, the calcium carbide market in China showed a sluggish performance. Although prices did not continue to decline as before, they still lingered at the bottom. According to the commodity analysis system, the change rate for this week was 0. Prices remained relatively low, providing limited support to PVC.

III. Market Forecast

PVC analysts believe that in the short term, the PVC spot market in China will remain sluggish, with prices continuing to fluctuate weakly. On the one hand, supply pressure remains unchanged, and next week, Shihua in Texas and Lianchuang are expected to start production, which is negative for supply. In addition, the operating rates of downstream factories are insufficient, and demand is average. The supply and demand situation is unlikely to improve in the short term, and it is expected that PVC prices will not perform well next week.